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Duke

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Duke Blue Devils, Duke
Program History
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski

2020 Team Stats (22 games)

81.8
PPG
69.7
Opp
+12.1
Margin
47.4%
FG%
33.2%
3P%
72.3%
FT%
38.9
RPG
15.2
APG
13.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
83.1
Adj PPG
63.3
Adj Opp PPG
#3
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2019-2020
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1385 (#13) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1310 (#9) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +96 elo More → 1130 (#34) HCA +96 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +21.1 (#3) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.1 More → +17.3 (#6) HCA +3.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.903 (#6) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +29.8 More → 0.969 (#2) AdjNet +29.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +30.1 More → 0.970 (#2) AdjNet +30.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.1 | AdjD 63.3 More → 0.858 (#3) AdjO 83.1 | AdjD 63.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 68.6 More → 0.753 (#6) AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 68.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.878 (#5) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.863 (#6) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 31 More → 1294 (#15) RD 93 | GP 31

2020 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2019-11-05 vs Kansas Jayhawks W 68 - 66
2019-11-08 vs Colorado State Rams W 89 - 55
2019-11-12 vs Central Arkansas Bears W 105 - 54
2019-11-15 vs Georgia State Panthers W 74 - 63
2019-11-21 @ California Golden Bears W 87 - 52
2019-11-22 @ Georgetown Hoyas W 81 - 73
2019-11-26 vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks L 83 - 85
2019-11-29 vs Winthrop Eagles W 83 - 70
2019-12-03 @ Michigan State Spartans W 87 - 75
2019-12-06 @ Virginia Tech Hokies W 77 - 63
2019-12-19 vs Wofford Terriers W 86 - 57
2019-12-28 vs Brown Bears W 75 - 50
2019-12-31 vs Boston College Eagles W 88 - 49
2020-01-04 @ Miami Hurricanes W 95 - 62
2020-01-08 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 73 - 64
2020-01-11 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 90 - 59
2020-01-14 @ Clemson Tigers L 72 - 79
2020-01-18 vs Louisville Cardinals L 73 - 79
2020-01-21 vs Miami Hurricanes W 89 - 59
2020-01-28 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 79 - 67
2020-02-01 @ Syracuse Orange W 97 - 88
2020-02-04 @ Boston College Eagles W 63 - 55
2020-02-08 @ North Carolina Tar Heels W 98 - 96
2020-02-10 vs Florida State Seminoles W 70 - 65
2020-02-15 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 94 - 60
2020-02-19 @ NC State Wolfpack L 66 - 88
2020-02-22 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 88 - 64
2020-02-25 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons L 101 - 113
2020-02-29 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 50 - 52
2020-03-02 vs NC State Wolfpack W 88 - 69
2020-03-07 vs North Carolina Tar Heels W 89 - 76
2020-03-12 vs NC State Wolfpack - Preview

2020 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Vernon Carey Jr. Vernon Carey Jr. - 31 24.9 17.8 8.8 1.0 0.7 1.6 2.0 8.5 19.3 292 28 10.4 17.1 56.7 25.0 65.9 5.3 81.4 57.4
Tre Jones Tre Jones - 29 35.4 16.2 4.2 6.4 1.8 0.3 2.7 10.6 15.7 252 26 9.7 11.2 41.9 37.0 77.0 0.46 65.8 46.8
Cassius Stanley Cassius Stanley - 29 27.4 12.6 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.9 7.8 10.1 200 26 7.7 11.5 46.3 35.1 75.3 0.12 69.3 52.0
Matthew Hurt Matthew Hurt F 31 20.5 9.7 3.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 5.3 9.4 228 28 8.1 16.2 48.5 39.5 75.0 3.31 81.1 58.2
Wendell Moore Jr. Wendell Moore Jr. - 25 24.0 7.4 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 2.4 4.4 7.9 212 24 8.8 15.4 44.0 21.4 86.0 2.79 69.4 45.4
Alex O'Connell Alex O'Connell - 29 13.3 5.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.8 161 26 6.2 18.2 42.6 29.2 57.1 2.1 70.9 49.5
Joey Baker Joey Baker - 27 12.5 5.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 3.2 3.8 135 24 5.6 17.8 35.6 33.3 75.0 2.78 78.3 45.4
Jordan Goldwire Jordan Goldwire G 31 24.1 4.7 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.1 229 28 8.2 13.9 49.5 37.5 64.7 1.58 69.0 57.1
Javin DeLaurier Javin DeLaurier F 31 13.2 3.5 3.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.5 6.8 66 28 2.4 7.3 58.3 25.0 75.0 -1.98 99.0 59.4
Jack White Jack White - 30 15.6 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.9 5.5 104 27 3.9 10.4 39.7 36.1 75.0 1.26 70.7 50.9
Justin Robinson Justin Robinson F 14 7.3 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.2 2.0 4.4 65 12 5.4 27.8 57.1 50.0 50.0 2.92 72.7 73.2
Mike Buckmire Mike Buckmire G 8 2.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 6 7 0.9 15.4 33.3 0 0 -1.55 33.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG