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NC State Wolfpack 20-12
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2020-03-12
Duke Blue Devils 25-6

Model Predictions

Model NC State Wolfpack Duke Blue Devils Spread Projected
Elo
2019-20 season-end ratings
 20.8% (#45) 79.2% (#13) Duke Bl... -8.1 68-76
Bradley-Terry
2019-20 season-end ratings
 24.0% (#62) 76.0% (#9) - -
Margin
2019-20 season-end ratings
 8.1% (#49) 91.9% (#3) Duke Bl... -13.4 -
Pythagorean
2019-20 season-end ratings
 40.2% (#83) 59.8% (#6) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2019-20 season-end ratings
 8.1% (#54) 91.9% (#2) - -
Log Adjusted
2019-20 season-end ratings
 8.0% (#54) 92.0% (#2) - -
Points Off/Def
2019-20 season-end ratings
 23.4% (#50) 76.6% (#3) - -

2019-20 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.8-point home edge (2018-19 margin fit); projected score: 2018-19's average total of 144 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat NC State Wolfpack Duke Blue Devils
Games 31 30
PPG 74.5 82.5
FG% 44.9% 46.8%
3PT% 31.2% 34.7%
FT% 70.6% 72.0%
RPG 36.1 40.3
APG 13.5 15.5
SPG 7.6 8.3
BPG 4.5 6.1
TOPG 11.9 13.1

Efficiency Ratings

Metric NC State Wolfpack Duke Blue Devils
Adj. Off Eff 108.0 114.9
Adj. Def Eff 92.0 85.1
Adj. Net Eff 15.9 29.8

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

NC State Wolfpack Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Markell Johnson 12.8 4.4 6.8 1.9 0.3 34.1
C.J. Bryce 13.3 6.3 2.1 1.3 0.2 33.6
Devon Daniels 12.7 5.3 2.2 1.7 0.4 31.1
DJ Funderburk 12.8 6.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 26.0
Jericole Hellems 9.5 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 25.5

Duke Blue Devils Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Tre Jones 16.2 4.2 6.4 1.8 0.3 35.4
Cassius Stanley 12.6 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 27.4
Vernon Carey Jr. 17.8 8.8 1.0 0.7 1.6 24.9
Jordan Goldwire 4.7 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.2 24.1
Wendell Moore Jr. 7.4 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 24.0