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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: John Brady

2016 Team Stats (1 games)

70.0
PPG
74.0
Opp
-4.0
Margin
38.7%
FG%
27.3%
3P%
69.6%
FT%
42.0
RPG
13.0
APG
18.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
71.7
Adj PPG
77.2
Adj Opp PPG
#253
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 765 (#304) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 856 (#269) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +98 elo More → 886 (#313) HCA +98 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -5.8 (#253) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -6.1 (#256) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.313 (#255) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.1 More → 0.283 (#246) AdjNet -8.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.1 More → 0.282 (#246) AdjNet -8.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 77.2 More → 0.378 (#253) AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 77.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 75.7 More → 0.395 (#267) AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 75.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.305 (#276) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.307 (#280) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 29 More → 821 (#286) RD 148 | GP 29

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-13 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars L 70 - 79
2015-11-16 vs Lyon Scots W 81 - 37
2015-11-18 @ Savannah State Tigers L 75 - 76
2015-11-22 vs Jackson State Tigers W 78 - 69
2015-11-25 @ Oregon Ducks L 68 - 91
2015-11-27 @ Baylor Bears L 72 - 94
2015-12-01 @ Missouri Tigers L 78 - 88
2015-12-04 vs North Dakota State Bison L 73 - 74
2015-12-12 vs Arkansas Monticello Boll Weevils W 104 - 71
2015-12-18 @ UT Martin Skyhawks L 70 - 74
2015-12-22 vs Central Arkansas Bears W 77 - 67
2015-12-30 @ Troy Trojans W 84 - 81
2016-01-02 @ South Alabama Jaguars W 89 - 67
2016-01-07 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 68 - 65
2016-01-09 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 71 - 69
2016-01-16 vs App State Mountaineers L 72 - 86
2016-01-18 vs Little Rock Trojans W 76 - 73
2016-01-21 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 64 - 91
2016-01-23 @ Texas State Bobcats L 68 - 78
2016-01-28 vs Georgia State Panthers W 75 - 69
2016-01-30 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 66 - 71
2016-02-04 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 79 - 73
2016-02-06 vs Troy Trojans L 70 - 71
2016-02-11 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 73 - 83
2016-02-13 @ UL Monroe Warhawks L 73 - 78
2016-02-18 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 59 - 90
2016-02-20 @ Georgia State Panthers L 61 - 69
2016-02-25 vs Texas State Bobcats L 60 - 71
2016-02-27 vs UT Arlington Mavericks L 75 - 79
2016-03-01 @ Little Rock Trojans L 80 - 89
2016-03-05 @ App State Mountaineers L 73 - 80

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Devin Carter Devin Carter G 29 36.0 17.0 4.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 1.8 2.6 20.0 -40 27 -1.5 -1.7 44.0 41.0 61.5 3.91 285.7 54.7
Anthony Livingston Anthony Livingston F 29 30.6 15.4 9.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.8 2.2 22.8 -96 27 -3.6 -4.9 35.9 28.6 80.6 -1.16 287.2 39.1
Donte Thomas Donte Thomas G 24 32.3 11.1 5.8 5.6 1.2 0.3 2.9 1.7 19.4 -42 22 -1.9 -2.5 48.8 50.0 63.2 -0.31 230.4 51.2
Sean Gardner Sean Gardner G 28 33.0 10.9 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 1.8 13.6 -107 26 -4.1 -5.1 25.5 25.0 100.0 -1.74 283.4 32.4
Nouhoum Bocoum Nouhoum Bocoum C 28 15.0 7.2 4.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.6 9.8 0 26 0.0 0.0 45.5 0 66.7 -0.63 188.8 45.5
Frederic Dure Frederic Dure G 28 23.6 5.9 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.7 1.8 0.8 9.9 -28 26 -1.1 -1.9 45.5 41.7 46.7 -0.19 288.5 56.8
Kelvin Downs Kelvin Downs F 8 13.2 5.1 3.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.4 7.1 -20 7 -2.9 -12.1 54.5 0 100.0 -3.6 179.2 54.5
Charles Waters Charles Waters F 29 14.0 4.2 3.7 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 8.4 20 27 0.7 2.3 47.4 0 68.8 0.26 236.2 47.4
Connor Kern Connor Kern G 7 11.7 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.0 3.3 3 6 0.5 1.8 42.9 42.9 0 -1.5 164.3 64.3
Christian Davis Christian Davis F 26 8.2 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 2.2 -52 24 -2.2 -11.3 18.2 0 75.0 -4.39 130.9 18.2
Josh Pierre Josh Pierre - 22 13.0 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 - - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 585.1 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG