๐Ÿปโฌ‡๏ธ๐Ÿ€

UMass

Also known as: UMass Minutemen, UMass
Program History

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1164 (#84) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1160 (#66) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 1053 (#96) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ +5.3 (#92) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +6.9 (#80) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.550 (#141) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.8 More โ†’ 0.733 (#93) AdjNet +8.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.9 More โ†’ 0.736 (#94) AdjNet +8.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 68.2 More โ†’ 0.607 (#94) AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 68.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 67.6 More โ†’ 0.586 (#90) AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 67.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.658 (#88) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.654 (#87) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 113 | GP 33 More โ†’ 1144 (#75) RD 113 | GP 33

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-13 vs Harvard Crimson W 67 - 64
2012-11-15 vs Providence Friars W 77 - 75
2012-11-16 vs NC State Wolfpack L 76 - 94
2012-11-18 vs Tennessee Volunteers L 69 - 83
2012-11-28 @ Siena Saints W 64 - 63
2012-12-01 vs Miami Hurricanes L 62 - 75
2012-12-04 @ Northeastern Huskies W 72 - 66
2012-12-15 vs Elon Phoenix W 78 - 73
2012-12-19 vs Ohio Bobcats W 85 - 76
2012-12-22 vs East Carolina Pirates W 88 - 81
2012-12-29 @ Northern Illinois Huskies W 64 - 59
2013-01-02 @ Miami (OH) Redhawks W 70 - 69
2013-01-05 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles W 75 - 61
2013-01-10 @ Saint Louis Billikens L 62 - 70
2013-01-13 @ Fordham Rams W 77 - 73
2013-01-17 vs Duquesne Dukes W 79 - 66
2013-01-19 vs George Washington Colonials L 76 - 79
2013-01-27 vs Richmond Spiders W 70 - 65
2013-01-30 @ La Salle Explorers W 61 - 60
2013-02-02 @ Charlotte 49ers L 65 - 66
2013-02-06 vs Rhode Island Rams W 81 - 53
2013-02-09 vs Saint Joseph's Hawks W 80 - 62
2013-02-14 @ VCU Rams L 68 - 86
2013-02-16 vs Temple Owls L 82 - 83
2013-02-20 @ St. Bonaventure Bonnies L 94 - 99
2013-02-23 vs Dayton Flyers W 76 - 66
2013-03-02 @ Xavier Musketeers W 77 - 72
2013-03-07 vs Butler Bulldogs L 62 - 73
2013-03-09 @ Rhode Island Rams W 75 - 66
2013-03-14 vs George Washington Colonials W 77 - 72
2013-03-15 @ Temple Owls W 79 - 74
2013-03-16 @ VCU Rams L 62 - 71
2013-03-20 vs Stony Brook Seawolves L 58 - 71

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Williams C. Williams G 33 35.3 15.5 4.2 7.3 2.0 0.2 3.5 1.8 23.9 105 28 3.8 4.5 48.3 30.0 73.1 4.69 367.2 53.4
J. Morgan J. Morgan G 14 28.7 13.4 2.9 1.8 1.7 0.1 1.4 3.0 15.6 42 12 3.5 5.1 31.0 27.3 50.0 -0.67 219.2 38.1
T. Vinson T. Vinson F 33 25.9 12.3 3.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.9 1.5 15.4 -12 28 -0.4 -0.7 50.0 28.6 79.4 -2.77 322.4 54.2
F. Riley F. Riley G 33 28.5 8.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.8 10.2 50 28 1.8 2.7 39.3 31.8 50.0 -0.6 490.6 51.8
C. Lalanne C. Lalanne C 32 22.1 8.4 7.4 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 15.8 91 27 3.4 6.4 68.4 0 54.5 3.48 564.2 68.4
R. Putney R. Putney F 33 22.7 7.1 4.6 1.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 1.5 11.8 25 28 0.9 1.7 36.7 27.8 66.7 -0.1 220.9 41.8
S. Carter S. Carter F 33 22.7 6.4 4.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.5 1.0 10.2 -36 28 -1.3 -2.4 42.4 16.7 76.9 -1.0 271.2 45.5
M. Esho M. Esho F 33 20.6 5.5 5.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.5 11.2 86 28 3.1 6.5 41.2 0.0 58.3 1.85 408.4 41.2
T. Davis T. Davis G 31 9.8 3.4 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.3 4.9 -20 26 -0.8 -3.5 50.0 60.0 100.0 -2.24 482.5 65.0
T. Bergantino T. Bergantino F 19 3.7 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.9 -10 15 -0.7 -7.3 50.0 0 0 -2.19 300.0 50.0
I. Freeman I. Freeman - 3 2.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG