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Toledo Rockets

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Toledo Rockets
Program History
Coach: Tod Kowalczyk

2018 Team Stats (4 games)

67.0
PPG
68.2
Opp
-1.2
Margin
41.6%
FG%
35.2%
3P%
70.6%
FT%
35.3
RPG
12.0
APG
10.3
TO
-
Est. poss./game
76.5
Adj PPG
73.2
Adj Opp PPG
#122
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1156 (#87) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1136 (#83) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1086 (#57) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +3.4 (#123) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +4.0 (#116) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.658 (#91) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.6 More → 0.629 (#123) AdjNet +4.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.6 More → 0.629 (#123) AdjNet +4.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 73.2 More → 0.576 (#122) AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 73.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.7 | AdjD 71.7 More → 0.590 (#94) AdjO 75.7 | AdjD 71.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.643 (#97) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.645 (#96) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 122 | GP 33 More → 1141 (#77) RD 122 | GP 33

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-11 vs Saint Joseph's Hawks W 98 - 87
2017-11-14 vs Ohio Northern Polar Bears W 72 - 62
2017-11-18 vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies W 87 - 74
2017-11-22 @ Syracuse Orange L 64 - 72
2017-11-24 @ Cornell Big Red L 77 - 80
2017-11-28 @ Kansas Jayhawks L 58 - 96
2017-12-02 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 71 - 69
2017-12-06 @ Detroit Mercy Titans W 89 - 86
2017-12-09 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 87 - 93
2017-12-16 vs Wright State Raiders L 69 - 77
2017-12-20 vs Jackson State Tigers W 83 - 57
2017-12-23 @ Cleveland State Vikings W 77 - 62
2017-12-29 @ Pennsylvania Quakers W 85 - 72
2018-01-02 @ Buffalo Bulls L 94 - 104
2018-01-05 vs Akron Zips W 67 - 65
2018-01-09 vs Western Michigan Broncos W 84 - 61
2018-01-13 @ Central Michigan Chippewas W 93 - 82
2018-01-16 @ Ohio Bobcats W 91 - 57
2018-01-20 vs Kent State Golden Flashes W 72 - 65
2018-01-23 @ Western Michigan Broncos W 85 - 81
2018-01-27 vs Bowling Green Falcons W 101 - 75
2018-01-30 vs Ball State Cardinals L 63 - 75
2018-02-03 @ Akron Zips W 77 - 56
2018-02-06 vs Northern Illinois Huskies W 82 - 77
2018-02-09 @ Miami (OH) RedHawks W 73 - 67
2018-02-13 vs Ohio Bobcats W 82 - 74
2018-02-17 @ Ball State Cardinals L 71 - 99
2018-02-20 @ Eastern Michigan Eagles L 79 - 85
2018-02-23 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 89 - 76
2018-02-27 @ Northern Illinois Huskies W 97 - 67
2018-03-02 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles L 69 - 71
2018-03-08 vs Miami (OH) RedHawks W 71 - 69
2018-03-09 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles W 64 - 63
2018-03-10 @ Buffalo Bulls L 66 - 76

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Sanford J. Sanford G 31 34.4 16.0 3.2 2.9 0.5 0.5 1.8 3.9 17.5 85 29 2.9 3.6 42.5 37.0 83.8 -0.9 182.3 49.6
N. Navigato N. Navigato F 31 32.7 12.0 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 2.6 15.9 87 29 3.0 4.0 40.7 39.7 63.6 -0.87 216.1 54.9
L. Knapke L. Knapke C 31 23.7 10.9 6.0 1.2 0.3 1.8 1.8 2.7 15.7 149 29 5.1 9.2 46.4 29.2 63.6 2.7 180.4 50.6
T. Fletcher T. Fletcher G 3 23.3 10.7 6.3 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.3 10.0 96 29 3.3 4.3 32.1 10.0 72.2 -0.5 44.5 33.9
M. Jackson M. Jackson G 30 30.1 8.2 2.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.9 11.3 143 28 5.1 7.4 48.3 46.2 92.3 4.31 193.8 63.8
W. Jackson W. Jackson F 18 19.2 7.7 5.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 1.9 2.3 10.8 24 17 1.4 3.3 54.8 100.0 56.2 -1.5 140.7 56.0
T. Adway T. Adway F 31 15.0 4.8 3.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 7.9 -23 29 -0.8 -2.2 45.8 0 75.0 -2.23 254.4 45.8
J. Gordon IV J. Gordon IV - 11 5.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Roberts J. Roberts G 29 8.5 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.1 41 27 1.5 7.3 40.0 40.0 0.0 1.66 518.7 60.0
D. Rose Jr. D. Rose Jr. G 12 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 20 9 2.2 26.9 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
D. Alderson D. Alderson G 30 10.0 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 3.0 -9 28 -0.3 -1.4 60.0 50.0 0 -2.77 255.0 65.0
M. Schaffer M. Schaffer G 6 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
V. Harris V. Harris - 6 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG