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Samford

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Samford Bulldogs
Program History
Coach: Bucky McMillan

2025 Team Stats (33 games)

82.9
PPG
75.5
Opp
+7.4
Margin
46.0%
FG%
36.4%
3P%
72.2%
FT%
36.0
RPG
16.5
APG
13.0
TO
71.9
Est. poss./game
79.0
Adj PPG
76.1
Adj Opp PPG
#120
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1021 (#136) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1111 (#88) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More → 1027 (#133) HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +2.6 (#122) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +0.7 (#154) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.665 (#89) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +2.8 More → 0.579 (#128) AdjNet +2.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.7 More → 0.577 (#129) AdjNet +2.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 76.1 More → 0.565 (#120) AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 76.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 76.3 More → 0.535 (#134) AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 76.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.557 (#134) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.551 (#135) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 125 | GP 31 More → 1033 (#136) RD 125 | GP 31

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-04 vs Mississippi College Choctaws W 100 - 58
2024-11-08 @ Cornell Big Red L 86 - 88
2024-11-12 vs Rhodes Lynx W 108 - 52
2024-11-15 @ North Alabama Lions W 97 - 96
2024-11-17 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 97 - 82
2024-11-19 @ Michigan State Spartans L 75 - 83
2024-11-26 vs North Dakota State Bison W 103 - 98
2024-11-27 vs Utah Valley Wolverines W 84 - 76
2024-11-29 vs West Georgia Wolves W 86 - 65
2024-12-05 @ South Carolina State Bulldogs W 88 - 81
2024-12-08 vs Austin Peay Governors W 72 - 47
2024-12-18 @ Arizona Wildcats L 64 - 96
2024-12-21 @ Alabama A&M Bulldogs W 97 - 90
2025-01-01 vs The Citadel Bulldogs W 86 - 56
2025-01-04 @ Western Carolina Catamounts W 88 - 69
2025-01-09 vs VMI Keydets W 81 - 68
2025-01-11 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 76 - 69
2025-01-15 @ Mercer Bears W 75 - 74
2025-01-18 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 60 - 65
2025-01-23 @ Chattanooga Mocs W 73 - 69
2025-01-25 vs Wofford Terriers W 77 - 61
2025-01-29 @ Furman Paladins L 70 - 72
2025-02-01 @ The Citadel Bulldogs W 83 - 58
2025-02-05 vs Mercer Bears W 100 - 79
2025-02-08 @ East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 59 - 66
2025-02-12 vs Chattanooga Mocs L 68 - 82
2025-02-15 @ Wofford Terriers W 76 - 68
2025-02-19 vs Furman Paladins L 72 - 80
2025-02-22 vs Western Carolina Catamounts W 93 - 72
2025-02-27 @ VMI Keydets W 95 - 83
2025-03-01 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans L 100 - 108
2025-03-08 vs Furman Paladins L 78 - 95
2025-03-19 @ George Mason Patriots L 69 - 86

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Trey Fort Trey Fort G 33 24.6 14.6 4.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 1.1 11.4 8.6 91 33 2.8 7.3 44.8 37.9 73.0 0.69 58.1 55.5
Jaden Brownell Jaden Brownell F 33 19.8 14.0 4.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 10.3 9.2 - - - - 51.3 39.7 80.3 - 62.5 59.9
Rylan Jones Rylan Jones G 33 28.5 10.7 3.3 5.3 1.7 0.1 2.3 8.0 10.7 130 33 3.9 9.2 44.3 40.2 75.0 1.44 60.8 58.3
Collin Holloway Collin Holloway F 33 24.5 9.0 5.0 1.9 0.7 0.5 2.1 7.0 8.0 - - - - 40.9 32.2 70.9 - 53.0 47.2
Josh Holloway Josh Holloway G 33 23.0 7.9 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.1 2.0 6.7 6.2 188 31 6.1 14.5 44.1 28.1 69.6 1.3 51.9 48.2
Riley Allenspach Riley Allenspach F 33 13.7 7.8 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.9 5.3 5.9 22 18 1.2 6.2 57.5 48.0 67.1 0.01 63.2 60.9
Lukas Walls Lukas Walls G 33 21.7 5.8 3.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.7 4.3 6.7 86 18 4.8 11.1 45.1 38.5 71.1 0.75 58.7 55.6
Julian Brown Julian Brown G 33 14.6 5.1 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.6 4.3 3.3 - - - - 35.7 35.1 80.0 - 53.3 49.3
Larry Olayinka Larry Olayinka F 33 10.8 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 2.6 5.4 17 17 1.0 5.8 65.1 0.0 55.2 -0.08 64.8 65.1
Isaiah West Isaiah West G 31 12.0 2.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 64 22 2.9 8.2 47.5 28.0 77.8 0.19 57.3 53.3
Brody Boyer Brody Boyer G 12 5.4 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.3 - - - - 38.9 33.3 0 - 52.8 52.8
Corey Brown Corey Brown G 2 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -2 24 -0.1 -0.3 100.0 100.0 0 0.57 150.0 150.0
Zion Wilburn Zion Wilburn G 26 5.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.7 - - - - 21.3 12.0 76.9 - 31.3 24.5
Paulie Stramaglia Paulie Stramaglia G 16 3.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 - - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Caleb Harrison Caleb Harrison F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Joshua Hughes Joshua Hughes F 2 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Owen LaRocca Owen LaRocca G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Grayson Walters Grayson Walters F 5 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.2 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Thomas Kizer Thomas Kizer G 3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

511 located field-goal attempts in 8 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Holloway24% Holloway22% Fort50% Fort100% Fort89% Brown22% Holloway25% Fort38% Brownell32% Jones29%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Holloway37% Allenspach24% Brownell33% Brownell50% Brownell50% Brownell23% Jones33% Fort28% Brownell26% Jones25%
Misses: who misses most here

Trey FortJaden BrownellJosh HollowayRylan JonesRiley AllenspachCollin HollowayJulian Brown

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 83-143 58.0 166 Josh Holloway 24% (40 pts) Jaden Brownell 23% (38 pts) Josh Holloway 37% (22 misses) Jaden Brownell 13% (8 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 49-107 45.8 98 Josh Holloway 22% (22 pts) Riley Allenspach 18% (18 pts) Riley Allenspach 24% (14 misses) Jaden Brownell 21% (12 misses)
Mid-range left 4-10 40.0 8 Trey Fort 50% (4 pts) Collin Holloway 25% (2 pts) Jaden Brownell 33% (2 misses) Trey Fort 33% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 3-5 60.0 6 Trey Fort 100% (6 pts) - Jaden Brownell 50% (1 misses) Trey Fort 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 9-13 69.2 18 Trey Fort 89% (16 pts) Collin Holloway 11% (2 pts) Jaden Brownell 50% (2 misses) Trey Fort 50% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 9-22 40.9 27 Julian Brown 22% (6 pts) Brody Boyer 11% (3 pts) Jaden Brownell 23% (3 misses) Collin Holloway 15% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 4-13 30.8 12 Collin Holloway 25% (3 pts) Isaiah West 25% (3 pts) Rylan Jones 33% (3 misses) Collin Holloway 22% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 26-83 31.3 78 Trey Fort 38% (30 pts) Jaden Brownell 15% (12 pts) Trey Fort 28% (16 misses) Jaden Brownell 16% (9 misses)
Above-break 3 center 19-54 35.2 57 Jaden Brownell 32% (18 pts) Rylan Jones 21% (12 pts) Jaden Brownell 26% (9 misses) Rylan Jones 17% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 right 17-61 27.9 51 Rylan Jones 29% (15 pts) Jaden Brownell 24% (12 pts) Rylan Jones 25% (11 misses) Trey Fort 18% (8 misses)