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Saint Francis Red Flash

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Saint Francis Red Wolves
Program History

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

56.8
PPG
70.3
Opp
-13.5
Margin
35.4%
FG%
25.9%
3P%
71.1%
FT%
35.6
RPG
12.2
APG
17.5
TO
70.8
Est. poss./game
51.8
Adj PPG
76.2
Adj Opp PPG
#355
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 496 (#356) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 594 (#355) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More → 850 (#338) HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -26.6 (#355) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -23.5 (#355) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.075 (#337) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -19.2 More → 0.075 (#337) NetEff -19.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -39.9 More → 0.009 (#357) AdjNet -39.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -40.9 More → 0.009 (#357) AdjNet -40.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 51.8 | AdjD 76.2 More → 0.098 (#355) AdjO 51.8 | AdjD 76.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.228 (#345) AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 69.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.064 (#356) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.078 (#356) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 146 | GP 29 More → 591 (#354) RD 146 | GP 29

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Duquesne Dukes L 60 - 89
2025-11-08 @ La Salle Explorers L 73 - 84
2025-11-13 vs Robert Morris Colonials L 61 - 71
2025-11-16 vs Lafayette Leopards L 55 - 69
2025-11-18 vs Carnegie Mellon Tartans L 53 - 55
2025-11-22 vs Army Black Knights L 50 - 82
2025-11-28 @ Iona Gaels L 31 - 50
2025-11-29 @ Maine Black Bears L 46 - 69
2025-12-06 vs Delaware State Hornets - Preview
2025-12-14 @ Xavier Musketeers L 51 - 63
2025-12-18 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 46 - 98
2025-12-21 @ Fordham Rams L 61 - 86
2026-01-02 @ Le Moyne Dolphins L 69 - 73
2026-01-04 vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 28 - 73
2026-01-08 vs Wagner Seahawks W 75 - 67
2026-01-10 vs Long Island University Sharks L 61 - 77
2026-01-15 @ Stonehill Skyhawks L 57 - 59
2026-01-17 @ Central Connecticut Blue Devils W 74 - 63
2026-01-22 @ Chicago State Cougars L 64 - 73
2026-01-24 vs New Haven Chargers L 60 - 61
2026-01-29 vs Chicago State Cougars L 61 - 70
2026-01-31 @ New Haven Chargers L 56 - 57
2026-02-05 vs Mercyhurst Lakers L 59 - 79
2026-02-07 vs Le Moyne Dolphins L 50 - 62
2026-02-14 @ Mercyhurst Lakers L 61 - 85
2026-02-19 @ Long Island University Sharks L 59 - 74
2026-02-21 @ Wagner Seahawks L 51 - 58
2026-02-26 vs Stonehill Skyhawks L 55 - 58
2026-02-28 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils W 82 - 63
2026-03-05 @ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 39 - 61
2026-03-09 @ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 56 - 81

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Shelby Ricks Shelby Ricks F 28 26.5 11.5 6.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.8 9.9 8.7 -194 25 -7.8 -12.0 41.9 33.3 79.3 -1.73 51.4 46.4
Aleah James Aleah James G 28 28.8 10.8 3.5 2.8 0.9 0.0 2.9 11.1 3.9 -185 25 -7.4 -10.6 37.8 32.9 66.7 0.56 44.4 41.7
Sonia Sato Sonia Sato C 28 27.5 8.9 4.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 2.4 9.5 3.9 -188 25 -7.5 -11.5 37.1 24.1 60.4 -2.24 43.1 40.8
Gemma Walker Gemma Walker G 25 23.2 7.6 2.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.5 6.1 4.6 -186 23 -8.1 -14.1 32.0 24.6 76.5 -3.91 48.4 37.6
Bati Assefa Bati Assefa G 28 27.0 5.2 4.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 2.1 4.8 5.6 -210 25 -8.4 -12.6 36.3 26.5 79.5 -3.12 48.3 43.0
Cassandra Hawthorne Cassandra Hawthorne F 29 18.4 5.2 3.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.6 5.4 3.2 -208 26 -8.0 -16.7 33.8 29.5 77.8 -4.02 44.0 39.5
Makyiah Ward Makyiah Ward G 29 25.5 4.8 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.1 2.5 5.4 4.6 -280 26 -10.8 -17.9 38.2 25.8 40.0 -5.34 41.1 40.8
Zaiha Minnis Zaiha Minnis G 25 10.1 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 4.1 0.8 -93 21 -4.4 -16.5 32.4 25.8 88.9 -3.8 42.9 40.7
Giselle Eke Giselle Eke F 25 13.0 2.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.9 1.9 -203 23 -8.8 -26.9 28.8 0.0 76.5 -7.92 34.2 28.8
Sajol Thornhill Sajol Thornhill G 29 15.7 1.8 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.5 3.4 0.7 -104 26 -4.0 -10.6 18.2 11.3 52.9 -1.22 24.4 21.7
Desire Short Desire Short G 5 7.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.6 2.6 -0.2 -44 5 -8.8 -43.7 15.4 12.5 0.0 -3.43 18.6 19.2
Kash Holmes Kash Holmes G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

1738 located field-goal attempts in 30 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Ricks24% Sato22% Ricks35% Ward43% James41% James31% Ricks29% James22% Ricks34% Walker23%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Ricks16% James20% James29% James27% James29% Assefa24% Thornhill23% Sato14% Sato20% James14%
Misses: who misses most here

Aleah JamesShelby RicksSonia SatoMakyiah WardBati AssefaGemma WalkerSajol Thornhill

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 146-272 53.7 292 Shelby Ricks 24% (70 pts) Aleah James 17% (50 pts) Shelby Ricks 16% (20 misses) Aleah James 14% (18 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 239-601 39.8 478 Sonia Sato 22% (104 pts) Aleah James 19% (92 pts) Aleah James 20% (71 misses) Sonia Sato 17% (63 misses)
Mid-range left 26-108 24.1 52 Shelby Ricks 35% (18 pts) Aleah James 15% (8 pts) Aleah James 29% (24 misses) Shelby Ricks 23% (19 misses)
Mid-range center 7-37 18.9 14 Makyiah Ward 43% (6 pts) Aleah James 14% (2 pts) Aleah James 27% (8 misses) Cassandra Hawthorne 23% (7 misses)
Mid-range right 44-121 36.4 88 Aleah James 41% (36 pts) Shelby Ricks 18% (16 pts) Aleah James 29% (22 misses) Sonia Sato 14% (11 misses)
Left corner 3 13-46 28.3 39 Aleah James 31% (12 pts) Bati Assefa 23% (9 pts) Bati Assefa 24% (8 misses) Aleah James 12% (4 misses)
Right corner 3 7-38 18.4 21 Shelby Ricks 29% (6 pts) Sonia Sato 29% (6 pts) Sajol Thornhill 23% (7 misses) Bati Assefa 16% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 left 67-229 29.3 201 Aleah James 22% (45 pts) Bati Assefa 15% (30 pts) Sonia Sato 14% (23 misses) Gemma Walker 13% (21 misses)
Above-break 3 center 29-104 27.9 87 Shelby Ricks 34% (30 pts) Cassandra Hawthorne 24% (21 pts) Sonia Sato 20% (15 misses) Shelby Ricks 19% (14 misses)
Above-break 3 right 39-182 21.4 117 Gemma Walker 23% (27 pts) Aleah James 13% (15 pts) Aleah James 14% (20 misses) Sajol Thornhill 14% (20 misses)