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SMU

Also known as: SMU Mustangs, SMU
Program History

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 973 (#181) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 927 (#225) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More โ†’ 919 (#278) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -1.3 (#184) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -2.2 (#200) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.406 (#215) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -2.1 More โ†’ 0.439 (#183) AdjNet -2.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.2 More โ†’ 0.438 (#183) AdjNet -2.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 60.1 More โ†’ 0.469 (#187) AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 60.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 60.1 More โ†’ 0.434 (#240) AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 60.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.424 (#207) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.417 (#214) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 136 | GP 28 More โ†’ 939 (#207) RD 136 | GP 28

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-11 vs McMurry War Hawks W 78 - 49
2011-11-14 @ Colorado State Rams L 56 - 75
2011-11-15 vs Fresno State Bulldogs L 52 - 54
2011-11-19 vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles W 65 - 64
2011-11-21 @ Oral Roberts Golden Eagles L 56 - 62
2011-11-22 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 64 - 55
2011-11-27 vs Georgia Southern Eagles W 55 - 49
2011-12-04 @ Little Rock Trojans W 69 - 63
2011-12-15 vs Jackson State Tigers L 58 - 59
2011-12-19 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 84 - 65
2011-12-22 vs Dallas Christian Crusaders W 77 - 41
2011-12-28 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys L 58 - 68
2011-12-31 vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs W 73 - 65
2012-01-03 @ Ole Miss Rebels L 48 - 50
2012-01-07 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 57 - 55
2012-01-11 vs Rice Owls L 52 - 68
2012-01-14 @ UTEP Miners L 64 - 70
2012-01-18 vs Houston Cougars W 70 - 54
2012-01-25 @ Tulane Green Wave L 74 - 80
2012-01-28 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane L 60 - 66
2012-02-01 @ East Carolina Pirates L 43 - 62
2012-02-04 vs UCF Knights L 52 - 59
2012-02-08 vs TCU Horned Frogs W 68 - 62
2012-02-15 vs UAB Blazers L 28 - 47
2012-02-18 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 68 - 73
2012-02-22 vs Tulane Green Wave W 64 - 50
2012-02-25 @ Houston Cougars L 59 - 62
2012-02-29 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 60 - 67
2012-03-03 vs UTEP Miners W 57 - 48
2012-03-07 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 56 - 74

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Robert Nyakundi Robert Nyakundi F 29 33.1 15.2 4.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 17.7 -4 25 -0.2 -0.2 42.0 34.9 80.0 2.02 258.2 51.2
London Giles London Giles G 29 29.5 10.4 2.4 1.1 1.2 0.0 1.7 1.6 11.8 -23 25 -0.9 -1.3 43.5 40.7 77.8 -0.58 301.2 55.4
Jalen Jones Jalen Jones G 30 21.8 8.1 3.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.3 1.2 10.4 -42 26 -1.6 -3.3 51.4 16.7 63.2 1.33 280.2 52.9
Jeremiah Samarrippas Jeremiah Samarrippas G 30 31.7 6.8 2.2 4.1 0.9 0.0 2.3 1.8 10.0 -27 25 -1.1 -1.4 45.3 42.9 75.0 -0.32 185.4 56.6
Shawn Williams Shawn Williams F 22 22.7 5.6 3.9 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.7 1.9 9.3 -118 21 -5.6 -10.0 35.7 31.8 18.2 -4.74 132.4 44.0
Rodney Clinkscales Rodney Clinkscales G 25 15.4 4.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 5.5 -90 22 -4.1 -10.8 40.0 37.5 100.0 -5.93 433.7 55.0
Leslee Smith Leslee Smith F 23 15.4 4.1 3.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 1.5 0.9 7.9 53 21 2.5 6.8 42.9 20.0 50.0 2.54 180.7 45.2
Cannen Cunningham Cannen Cunningham C 28 12.9 3.6 3.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.7 6.2 -25 24 -1.0 -3.9 42.1 16.7 70.0 -1.28 215.8 44.7
Ryan Manuel Ryan Manuel G 30 12.3 3.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.5 4.8 -22 25 -0.9 -3.2 57.1 0.0 61.1 -1.23 230.4 57.1
Aliaksei Patsevich Aliaksei Patsevich - 30 17.3 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 4.7 - - - - 19.0 6.7 0 - 204.8 21.4
Ricmonds Vilde Ricmonds Vilde C 15 10.5 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 3.7 -5 10 -0.5 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0 -2.39 675.0 0.0
Eric Norman Eric Norman F 9 3.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 -2 5 -0.4 -5.5 0.0 0 0 -0.52 50.0 0.0
Kevin Dunleavy Kevin Dunleavy G 3 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.19 0 0
Jordan Walker Jordan Walker G 3 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG