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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Program History
Coach: Shane Burcar

2022 Team Stats (2 games)

62.0
PPG
74.3
Opp
-7.7
Margin
37.9%
FG%
28.9%
3P%
64.7%
FT%
38.5
RPG
10.0
APG
15.0
TO
84.7
Pace

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 837 (#731) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1010 (#320) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 877 (#627) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +13.9 (#345) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → -1.6 (#372) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.099 (#112) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -34.2 More → 0.021 (#322) NetEff -34.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -30.6 More → 0.028 (#116) AdjNet -30.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -31.0 More → 0.027 (#116) AdjNet -31.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 69.9 More → 0.361 (#602) AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 69.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.396 (#393) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.367 (#424) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 138 | GP 29 More → 807 (#608) RD 138 | GP 29

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-09 @ Arizona Wildcats L 52 - 81
2021-11-11 @ Washington Huskies L 62 - 73
2021-11-15 vs Benedictine (AZ) Redhawks W 97 - 48
2021-11-20 @ UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 89 - 87
2021-11-22 vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros L 80 - 82
2021-12-02 @ Weber State Wildcats L 44 - 67
2021-12-04 @ Idaho State Bengals W 73 - 70
2021-12-11 @ South Dakota Coyotes L 71 - 76
2021-12-18 vs San Diego Toreros L 59 - 69
2021-12-20 @ Gonzaga Bulldogs L 49 - 95
2022-01-01 vs Eastern Washington Eagles L 65 - 78
2022-01-10 vs Sacramento State Hornets - Preview
2022-01-17 vs Idaho Vandals W 74 - 72
2022-01-20 vs Montana State Bobcats L 84 - 89
2022-01-22 vs Montana Grizzlies L 48 - 58
2022-01-24 vs Sacramento State Hornets W 70 - 65
2022-01-29 vs Portland State Vikings L 76 - 97
2022-01-31 @ Southern Utah Thunderbirds L 66 - 78
2022-02-03 @ Sacramento State Hornets W 62 - 61
2022-02-05 vs Northern Colorado Bears L 71 - 74
2022-02-07 @ Northern Colorado Bears L 60 - 82
2022-02-10 @ Montana Grizzlies W 72 - 67
2022-02-12 @ Montana State Bobcats L 70 - 72
2022-02-17 @ Portland State Vikings L 67 - 68
2022-02-21 vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds L 48 - 79
2022-02-24 vs Idaho State Bengals L 66 - 70
2022-02-26 vs Weber State Wildcats L 49 - 73
2022-03-03 @ Eastern Washington Eagles L 62 - 69
2022-03-05 @ Idaho Vandals L 69 - 78
2022-03-09 @ Eastern Washington Eagles L 75 - 78

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
X. Fuller X. Fuller - 1 38.0 20.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 26.0 -16 -0.7 -1.2 0 0 0 -0.5 0 0
J. Cone J. Cone - 24 35.7 19.1 3.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 4.1 3.2 19.2 - - - 44.7 40.0 76.9 0.67 280.2 53.9
M. Porter M. Porter F 2 19.0 13.5 5.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 18.5 -157 -5.2 -11.4 0 0 0 -0.96 0 0
D. Marin D. Marin G 2 36.5 12.5 3.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 16.5 83 2.6 3.3 0 0 0 0.5 0 0
N. Mains N. Mains - 29 33.6 11.3 5.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.5 16.5 -124 -3.9 -4.9 37.2 31.0 83.3 -0.55 359.3 47.7
D. Terry D. Terry - 1 22.0 11.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24.0 - - - 0 0 0 2.69 0 0
T. Cool T. Cool G 2 32.5 10.0 2.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 15.0 -134 -4.6 -5.9 0 0 0 0.02 0 0
K. Haymon K. Haymon - 21 26.6 9.0 3.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 1.2 10.2 -99 -3.5 -5.4 30.8 26.7 50.0 -0.51 328.2 38.5
C. Towt C. Towt F 24 30.3 8.9 8.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 2.0 1.3 17.9 -71 -2.2 -3.1 46.9 0 60.0 0.08 292.6 46.9
B. Mathurin B. Mathurin - 1 25.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 - - - 0 0 0 1.72 0 0
L. Sorensen L. Sorensen G 1 33.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 12.0 -106 -3.8 -6.9 0 0 0 -0.34 0 0
M. Stark M. Stark G 18 17.6 5.2 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 6.3 -19 -0.6 -1.4 31.2 45.5 0 0.09 293.8 46.9
J. Kier J. Kier G 1 19.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 309 8.4 16.4 0 0 0 1.86 0 0
C. Carlson C. Carlson F 1 14.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 2 0.1 0.4 0 0 0 -0.2 0 0
J. Overton J. Overton F 2 26.0 4.0 2.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 8.0 188 5.7 7.8 0 0 0 1.32 0 0
E. Richards E. Richards C 24 16.6 3.9 3.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 7.7 -130 -4.2 -9.7 80.0 0 50.0 -1.24 427.4 80.0
J. Green J. Green G 21 11.1 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.8 4.0 -132 -4.9 -16.9 58.8 0.0 72.7 -0.49 164.8 58.8
J. Jackson J. Jackson G 17 12.9 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 4.9 92 2.6 4.3 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.21 258.1 22.2
G. Nelson G. Nelson G 1 5.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 110 3.8 6.0 0 0 0 0.61 0 0
Isaiah Lewis Isaiah Lewis F 23 13.5 2.1 2.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 4.3 -126 -3.9 -10.7 44.4 50.0 0.0 -1.0 232.6 50.0
W. Brown W. Brown - 15 9.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.5 3.0 -58 -2.6 -9.7 37.5 0.0 0.0 -0.62 171.8 37.5
A. Aguek A. Aguek F 16 7.8 1.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -0.33 193.8 0.0
S. Roberts S. Roberts F 3 4.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
C. Mahaney C. Mahaney G 6 8.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.3 -38 -4.8 -23.7 0.0 0 100.0 -0.47 69.4 0.0
D. Campisano D. Campisano F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
M. Kozak M. Kozak F 2 9.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 6 0.4 2.1 0 0 0 -0.0 0 0
T. Smoots T. Smoots G 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -21 -2.1 -8.9 0 0 0 -0.44 0 0
M. Moore M. Moore G 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67 2.6 10.7 0 0 0 0.61 0 0
D. Nzekwesi D. Nzekwesi - 2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Sanders J. Sanders - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 -0.13 0 0
M. Muhammad M. Muhammad C 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 20 2.0 15.7 0 0 0 0.02 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG