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Gardner-Webb Runnin'

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Program History
Coach: Jeremy Luther

2026 Team Stats (33 games)

68.1
PPG
85.5
Opp
-17.3
Margin
42.8%
FG%
30.9%
3P%
68.4%
FT%
30.7
RPG
10.2
APG
13.6
TO
70.3
Est. poss./game
64.7
Adj PPG
84.6
Adj Opp PPG
#362
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 539 (#362) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 639 (#361) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 851 (#357) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -21.0 (#362) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.2 More → -16.3 (#352) HCA +2.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.043 (#364) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -29.0 More → 0.043 (#364) NetEff -29.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -27.3 More → 0.041 (#361) AdjNet -27.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -27.4 More → 0.040 (#361) AdjNet -27.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 84.6 More → 0.140 (#362) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 84.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.1 | AdjD 78.7 More → 0.241 (#359) AdjO 66.1 | AdjD 78.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.114 (#361) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.129 (#360) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 161 | GP 30 More → 626 (#362) RD 161 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers L 60 - 87
2025-11-07 @ Clemson Tigers L 59 - 97
2025-11-10 vs North Greenville Trailblazers L 81 - 92
2025-11-15 @ Elon Phoenix L 84 - 95
2025-11-18 @ DePaul Blue Demons L 62 - 93
2025-11-22 @ Richmond Spiders L 67 - 102
2025-11-26 vs Navy Midshipmen L 51 - 84
2025-11-28 vs SE Louisiana Lions L 68 - 76
2025-11-29 @ UNC Wilmington Seahawks L 62 - 88
2025-12-03 @ Queens University Royals L 74 - 107
2025-12-06 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 84 - 88
2025-12-12 vs Brevard Tornados W 77 - 63
2025-12-15 vs Wofford Terriers L 57 - 83
2025-12-18 vs Toccoa Falls Eagles W 105 - 65
2025-12-21 @ Tennessee Volunteers L 52 - 94
2025-12-31 vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers L 79 - 89
2026-01-03 @ Winthrop Eagles L 77 - 88
2026-01-07 @ High Point Panthers L 49 - 104
2026-01-14 vs Radford Highlanders L 80 - 89
2026-01-17 vs Presbyterian Blue Hose L 55 - 92
2026-01-21 @ Longwood Lancers L 56 - 91
2026-01-23 vs South Carolina Upstate Spartans W 67 - 65
2026-01-29 @ UNC Asheville Bulldogs L 50 - 69
2026-02-04 vs Longwood Lancers L 66 - 86
2026-02-07 @ Presbyterian Blue Hose L 62 - 68
2026-02-12 vs Winthrop Eagles L 85 - 103
2026-02-14 vs High Point Panthers L 87 - 112
2026-02-17 @ Charleston Southern Buccaneers L 66 - 75
2026-02-19 @ Radford Highlanders L 70 - 82
2026-02-26 vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs L 71 - 77
2026-02-28 @ South Carolina Upstate Spartans L 61 - 71
2026-03-04 @ South Carolina Upstate Spartans W 65 - 64
2026-03-06 @ High Point Panthers L 59 - 81

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jacob Hogarth Jacob Hogarth - 33 25.0 10.7 7.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 2.4 7.6 10.5 -287 24 -12.0 -20.5 52.6 40.0 70.6 -2.79 58.3 53.8
Jacob Hudson Jacob Hudson G 29 27.1 10.7 4.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.6 8.5 8.0 -211 20 -10.6 -16.1 46.2 25.0 65.1 0.15 52.8 48.8
Spence Sims Spence Sims - 32 24.5 9.9 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 7.7 3.8 -294 23 -12.8 -22.7 45.1 43.0 75.8 -2.57 61.0 59.6
Colin Hawkins Colin Hawkins G 31 27.2 8.2 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.1 7.3 3.7 -367 23 -16.0 -23.5 43.8 23.8 59.0 -4.6 48.8 46.0
DJ Jefferson DJ Jefferson G 27 16.7 7.6 2.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.4 6.6 3.7 -202 20 -10.1 -26.1 41.9 35.1 62.9 -4.31 52.7 51.1
Julius Clark Julius Clark - 8 17.0 7.2 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 4.6 5.0 - - - - 48.6 23.1 73.1 -2.75 59.9 52.7
Ace Talbert Ace Talbert G 32 25.3 6.9 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.0 0.9 6.8 3.8 -229 23 -10.0 -16.2 35.8 26.1 61.7 1.07 46.5 44.3
Curtis Williams III Curtis Williams III - 26 21.3 6.6 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 6.1 4.0 -142 17 -8.4 -17.9 37.3 27.4 70.2 -0.87 47.9 43.7
Jamias Ferere Jamias Ferere - 32 17.0 6.3 2.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.2 5.5 3.8 -214 24 -8.9 -20.8 41.5 23.7 77.0 -2.32 49.8 44.0
NaVuan Peterson NaVuan Peterson - 27 13.2 3.1 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 3.1 3.2 -135 19 -7.1 -25.0 34.1 26.7 84.6 -1.64 46.8 43.5
Riek Riek Riek Riek - 27 10.4 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 -99 21 -4.7 -18.9 38.9 26.1 66.7 -1.65 49.2 47.2
Bo Barber Bo Barber - 17 8.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 -36 6 -6.0 -25.2 28.6 0.0 90.9 -2.27 47.8 28.6
Paul Lindberg Paul Lindberg - 9 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.6 -5 6 -0.8 -19.2 28.6 50.0 0 -1.25 35.7 35.7
Isaiah Hicks Isaiah Hicks G 5 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 - - - - 20.0 0.0 0 -0.54 20.0 20.0
Cameron Gales Cameron Gales - 10 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 -0.2 -2 5 -0.4 -9.9 14.3 25.0 0 -1.14 21.4 21.4
Ahmadou Ndiaye Ahmadou Ndiaye - 10 4.7 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 - - - - 20.0 50.0 0.0 -2.26 27.6 30.0
Ashton King Ashton King G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

1897 located field-goal attempts in 33 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Hogarth21% Hogarth24% Sims24% Hogarth25% Hogarth25% Sims28% Jefferson27% Sims45% Sims29% Sims27%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Hudson20% Hawkins20% Hawkins23% Hogarth17% Hogarth26% Talbert29% Talbert22% Talbert22% Sims23% Jefferson18%
Misses: who misses most here

Spence SimsJacob HogarthJacob HudsonColin HawkinsAce TalbertDJ Jefferson

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 406-646 62.8 812 Jacob Hogarth 21% (170 pts) Jacob Hudson 18% (150 pts) Jacob Hudson 20% (48 misses) Jacob Hogarth 18% (42 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 141-391 36.1 282 Jacob Hogarth 24% (68 pts) Colin Hawkins 16% (46 pts) Colin Hawkins 20% (50 misses) Jacob Hogarth 20% (50 misses)
Mid-range left 17-47 36.2 34 Spence Sims 24% (8 pts) Colin Hawkins 18% (6 pts) Colin Hawkins 23% (7 misses) Spence Sims 20% (6 misses)
Mid-range center 8-32 25.0 16 Jacob Hogarth 25% (4 pts) Curtis Williams III 12% (2 pts) Jacob Hogarth 17% (4 misses) Jamias Ferere 17% (4 misses)
Mid-range right 16-50 32.0 32 Jacob Hogarth 25% (8 pts) NaVuan Peterson 25% (8 pts) Jacob Hogarth 26% (9 misses) Jamias Ferere 18% (6 misses)
Left corner 3 25-60 41.7 75 Spence Sims 28% (21 pts) Jacob Hudson 16% (12 pts) Ace Talbert 29% (10 misses) DJ Jefferson 20% (7 misses)
Right corner 3 22-63 34.9 66 DJ Jefferson 27% (18 pts) Spence Sims 27% (18 pts) Ace Talbert 22% (9 misses) DJ Jefferson 15% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 left 56-224 25.0 168 Spence Sims 45% (75 pts) Ace Talbert 16% (27 pts) Ace Talbert 22% (37 misses) Spence Sims 21% (35 misses)
Above-break 3 center 41-133 30.8 123 Spence Sims 29% (36 pts) Ace Talbert 22% (27 pts) Spence Sims 23% (21 misses) Ace Talbert 21% (19 misses)
Above-break 3 right 79-251 31.5 237 Spence Sims 27% (63 pts) Ace Talbert 19% (45 pts) DJ Jefferson 18% (31 misses) Ace Talbert 17% (30 misses)