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Elon

2012 Team Stats (2 games)

71.0
PPG
86.0
Opp
-15.0
Margin
40.6%
FG%
31.3%
3P%
78.9%
FT%
35.5
RPG
12.0
APG
14.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
63.1
Adj PPG
69.0
Adj Opp PPG
#264
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 863 (#241) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 903 (#239) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More โ†’ 955 (#230) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -6.3 (#262) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -5.7 (#259) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.287 (#267) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -9.9 More โ†’ 0.242 (#265) AdjNet -9.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -9.9 More โ†’ 0.241 (#265) AdjNet -9.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 69.0 More โ†’ 0.367 (#264) AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 69.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 68.3 More โ†’ 0.413 (#254) AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 68.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.338 (#255) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.346 (#254) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 151 | GP 25 More โ†’ 870 (#254) RD 151 | GP 25

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-11 @ UMass Minutemen L 67 - 85
2011-11-15 vs South Carolina Gamecocks W 58 - 53
2011-11-18 vs Rutgers-Camden Scarlet Raptors W 87 - 53
2011-11-22 @ Princeton Tigers W 56 - 55
2011-11-25 @ NC State Wolfpack L 67 - 82
2011-11-30 vs Furman Paladins W 77 - 70
2011-12-03 vs Navy Midshipmen W 51 - 48
2011-12-05 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans W 80 - 72
2011-12-11 vs Lynchburg Hornets W 109 - 67
2011-12-17 @ Dartmouth Big Green L 54 - 62
2011-12-22 @ San Diego State Aztecs L 55 - 81
2011-12-29 @ North Carolina Tar Heels L 62 - 100
2012-01-05 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 63 - 69
2012-01-08 vs Columbia Lions L 60 - 65
2012-01-14 @ Charleston Cougars L 44 - 63
2012-01-19 vs Samford Bulldogs L 80 - 86
2012-01-26 @ Western Carolina Catamounts W 71 - 63
2012-01-28 @ Appalachian State Mountaineers L 66 - 81
2012-02-04 vs The Citadel Bulldogs W 71 - 66
2012-02-06 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers W 82 - 59
2012-02-09 @ Chattanooga Mocs L 75 - 83
2012-02-15 @ Wofford Terriers L 59 - 72
2012-02-18 vs Western Carolina Catamounts L 76 - 78
2012-02-23 @ Davidson Wildcats L 45 - 66
2012-02-25 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 93 - 79
2012-03-03 vs Georgia Southern Eagles W 65 - 58
2012-03-04 @ Davidson Wildcats L 67 - 83

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jack Isenbarger Jack Isenbarger G 25 28.8 14.1 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 1.7 3.5 15.4 -20 18 -1.1 -1.6 39.8 38.5 100.0 -1.27 188.3 51.1
Lucas Troutman Lucas Troutman F 27 26.9 12.3 5.6 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.8 3.1 16.1 64 19 3.4 5.9 49.4 0 60.0 3.81 162.3 49.4
Sebastian Koch Sebastian Koch G 27 30.6 8.9 5.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 1.7 2.4 12.6 19 19 1.0 1.5 35.9 28.2 90.9 1.34 174.3 44.5
Austin Hamilton Austin Hamilton G 23 24.1 8.7 2.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 2.3 2.5 9.2 -4 14 -0.3 -0.6 42.1 43.5 84.6 -0.73 159.4 50.9
Drew Spradlin Drew Spradlin G 27 26.2 8.3 3.9 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.6 2.6 10.4 -4 19 -0.2 -0.3 31.0 42.9 77.8 -0.49 141.9 37.3
Ryley Beaumont Ryley Beaumont F 27 24.9 7.1 6.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.3 11.1 -15 19 -0.8 -1.4 41.9 0.0 60.0 -3.81 134.9 41.9
Brett Ervin Brett Ervin F 27 12.7 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 4.4 -29 19 -1.5 -5.1 38.7 31.8 100.0 -3.89 158.4 50.0
Egheosa Edomwonyi Egheosa Edomwonyi F 27 10.3 2.6 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 4.1 -53 19 -2.8 -12.5 31.6 0 33.3 -3.67 174.7 31.6
Josh Bonney Josh Bonney G 22 8.5 1.6 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.7 2.5 -1 16 -0.1 -0.4 33.3 0.0 0 -1.01 120.0 33.3
Ryan Winters Ryan Winters F 11 6.5 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 10 7 1.4 10.6 66.7 0 0 1.64 150.0 66.7
Kevin Blake Kevin Blake G 23 8.8 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.6 -30 17 -1.8 -9.0 33.3 0.0 62.5 -3.81 112.8 33.3
Roger Dugas Roger Dugas F 21 5.6 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.2 5 16 0.3 2.7 30.0 33.3 0 -0.31 150.0 45.0
Lucas Weavil Lucas Weavil - 3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 75.0 0.0
John Moody John Moody G 5 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.4 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.02 0 0
Aaron Smith Aaron Smith G 5 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -0.89 100.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG