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Appalachian State

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Appalachian State Mountaineers
Program History
Coach: Dustin Kerns

2018 Team Stats (2 games)

80.5
PPG
74.0
Opp
+6.5
Margin
43.4%
FG%
34.1%
3P%
76.9%
FT%
38.5
RPG
12.5
APG
13.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
72.5
Adj PPG
75.8
Adj Opp PPG
#212
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 916 (#217) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 908 (#241) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 984 (#200) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -3.6 (#209) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → -3.2 (#218) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.418 (#218) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -5.1 More → 0.357 (#212) AdjNet -5.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -5.3 More → 0.350 (#211) AdjNet -5.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.5 | AdjD 75.8 More → 0.426 (#212) AdjO 72.5 | AdjD 75.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 73.0 More → 0.468 (#206) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 73.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.407 (#220) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.415 (#220) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 129 | GP 31 More → 894 (#240) RD 129 | GP 31

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-11 vs Toccoa Falls Eagles W 135 - 34
2017-11-12 vs Bridgewater Eagles W 95 - 57
2017-11-16 vs Iowa State Cyclones L 98 - 104
2017-11-17 @ Western Michigan Broncos L 67 - 86
2017-11-19 vs UTEP Miners W 76 - 72
2017-11-22 @ James Madison Dukes L 99 - 105
2017-11-25 vs Davidson Wildcats W 78 - 62
2017-11-28 @ VCU Rams L 72 - 85
2017-12-02 vs South Florida Bulls W 84 - 61
2017-12-04 @ Western Carolina Catamounts L 71 - 72
2017-12-09 @ Akron Zips L 89 - 94
2017-12-16 @ Ohio State Buckeyes L 67 - 80
2017-12-20 @ Hampton Pirates L 53 - 86
2017-12-29 vs Texas State Bobcats W 66 - 62
2017-12-31 vs UT Arlington Mavericks W 80 - 76
2018-01-04 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 45 - 78
2018-01-06 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 79 - 73
2018-01-11 vs Georgia State Panthers L 58 - 71
2018-01-13 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 59 - 60
2018-01-18 @ Troy Trojans - Postponed
2018-01-20 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 77 - 83
2018-01-22 @ Troy Trojans L 79 - 81
2018-01-25 vs Little Rock Trojans W 72 - 67
2018-01-27 vs Arkansas State Red Wolves L 88 - 93
2018-02-01 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 77 - 89
2018-02-03 @ Texas State Bobcats W 59 - 56
2018-02-10 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 81 - 66
2018-02-15 vs South Alabama Jaguars L 66 - 77
2018-02-17 vs Troy Trojans W 65 - 54
2018-02-22 @ Arkansas State Red Wolves L 79 - 82
2018-02-24 @ Little Rock Trojans W 69 - 67
2018-03-03 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 76 - 67
2018-03-07 vs Little Rock Trojans W 93 - 64
2018-03-09 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 68 - 84

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ronshad Shabazz Ronshad Shabazz G 30 33.0 17.6 2.5 3.0 1.1 0.1 2.4 1.7 20.1 -32 24 -1.3 -1.7 38.0 18.2 76.5 -0.91 458.4 42.0
Justin Forrest Justin Forrest G 30 28.2 13.4 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.0 2.8 1.6 15.0 37 24 1.5 2.2 40.8 40.0 61.1 3.76 354.0 51.0
Griffin Kinney Griffin Kinney F 30 23.8 10.6 5.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 2.0 1.1 15.0 6 24 0.2 0.4 52.9 0.0 70.6 2.02 383.3 52.9
O'Showen Williams O'Showen Williams G 30 25.2 7.8 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.0 1.3 0.7 11.5 -57 24 -2.4 -4.1 47.6 54.5 77.8 -2.99 468.8 61.9
Isaac Johnson Isaac Johnson F 30 27.6 7.4 8.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.7 0.7 15.7 -18 24 -0.8 -1.1 45.5 25.0 68.4 0.65 364.0 47.7
Tyrell Johnson Tyrell Johnson F 30 22.5 7.0 3.9 0.6 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 11.0 -42 24 -1.8 -3.4 34.8 25.0 20.0 -2.06 414.7 39.1
Craig Hinton Craig Hinton F 30 18.7 5.1 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 8.6 -48 24 -2.0 -4.3 26.7 18.2 0 -3.2 510.0 33.3
Hunter Seacat Hunter Seacat F 20 11.4 2.7 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 5.5 9 20 0.5 1.7 28.6 0 0 2.0 385.7 28.6
Bennett Holley Bennett Holley F 24 7.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.1 -32 17 -1.9 -11.9 0.0 0.0 0 -3.0 625.0 0.0
Jake Wilson Jake Wilson C 24 5.9 1.0 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.9 -21 16 -1.3 -11.5 0.0 0 33.3 -2.92 361.4 0.0
Zach Cottrell Zach Cottrell F 21 7.4 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.3 -15 15 -1.0 -6.1 20.0 25.0 75.0 -1.6 155.3 30.0
Nick Hough Nick Hough G 5 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 - - - - 100.0 0 0 -1.98 200.0 100.0
Kevin Kerley Kevin Kerley G 5 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.98 0 0
Trey Ford Trey Ford G 5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.98 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG