Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mountaineers | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.3% | 60.7% | +2.4 | ✗ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -3 (56-59). Predictions use season-end ratings.
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronshad Shabazz * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 20 | - |
| Justin Forrest * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Griffin Kinney * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 | - |
| Isaac Johnson * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Tyrell Johnson * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Craig Hinton | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | - |
| O'Showen Williams | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Hunter Seacat | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Bennett Holley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Larenz Nottingham * | 37 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Nijal Pearson * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 22 | - |
| Tyler Blount * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Alex Peacock * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Immanuel King * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Eric Terry | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Shelby Adams | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Nedeljko Prijovic | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Deris Duncan | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter