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Virginia

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Virginia
Program History
Coach: Ron Sanchez

2026 Team Stats (35 games)

80.3
PPG
68.7
Opp
+11.6
Margin
45.9%
FG%
35.8%
3P%
72.7%
FT%
40.0
RPG
16.2
APG
10.5
TO
80.0
Pace

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1395 (#6) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1343 (#10) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1161 (#13) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +19.6 (#21) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +30.2 (#20) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.857 (#13) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +17.9 More → 0.899 (#47) NetEff +17.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +26.7 More → 0.956 (#18) AdjNet +26.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +27.0 More → 0.957 (#18) AdjNet +27.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 84.2 | AdjD 64.2 More → 0.860 (#19) AdjO 84.2 | AdjD 64.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 65.9 More → 0.739 (#24) AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 65.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.954 (#16) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.937 (#16) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 35 More → 1396 (#8) RD 104 | GP 35

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Rider Broncs W 87 - 53
2025-11-07 vs North Carolina Central Eagles W 81 - 62
2025-11-11 vs Hampton Pirates W 91 - 53
2025-11-15 vs Marshall Thundering Herd W 104 - 78
2025-11-21 vs Northwestern Wildcats W 83 - 78
2025-11-23 vs Butler Bulldogs L 73 - 80
2025-11-28 vs Queens University Royals W 94 - 69
2025-12-03 @ Texas Longhorns W 88 - 69
2025-12-09 vs Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks W 84 - 60
2025-12-20 vs Maryland Terrapins W 80 - 72
2025-12-22 vs American University Eagles W 95 - 51
2025-12-31 @ Virginia Tech Hokies L 85 - 95
2026-01-03 @ NC State Wolfpack W 76 - 61
2026-01-07 vs California Golden Bears W 84 - 60
2026-01-10 vs Stanford Cardinal W 70 - 55
2026-01-13 @ Louisville Cardinals W 79 - 70
2026-01-17 @ SMU Mustangs W 72 - 68
2026-01-24 vs North Carolina Tar Heels L 80 - 85
2026-01-27 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 100 - 97
2026-01-31 @ Boston College Eagles W 73 - 66
2026-02-03 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 67 - 47
2026-02-07 vs Syracuse Orange W 72 - 59
2026-02-10 @ Florida State Seminoles W 61 - 58
2026-02-14 @ Ohio State Buckeyes W 70 - 66
2026-02-18 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 94 - 68
2026-02-21 vs Miami Hurricanes W 86 - 83
2026-02-24 vs NC State Wolfpack W 90 - 61
2026-02-28 @ Duke Blue Devils L 51 - 77
2026-03-03 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 75 - 70
2026-03-07 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 76 - 72
2026-03-12 vs NC State Wolfpack W 81 - 74
2026-03-13 vs Miami Hurricanes W 84 - 62
2026-03-14 @ Duke Blue Devils L 70 - 74
2026-03-20 vs Wright State Raiders W 82 - 73
2026-03-22 vs Tennessee Volunteers L 72 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Thijs De Ridder Thijs De Ridder - 35 27.7 15.8 6.1 1.6 0.9 0.5 1.7 10.9 12.2 239 11.4 19.4 51.2 36.7 71.2 1.92 60.4 56.4
M. Thomas M. Thomas - 35 22.9 12.6 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.5 10.1 6.9 198 9.0 14.5 41.1 35.4 74.6 2.1 54.8 50.6
S. Lewis S. Lewis - 35 25.6 10.7 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 1.3 8.3 7.1 183 8.7 16.7 45.2 40.5 75.8 1.04 58.6 55.8
Chance Mallory Chance Mallory - 35 24.0 9.2 3.7 3.3 1.6 0.1 1.1 6.5 10.4 182 8.7 16.9 42.5 34.2 76.5 1.42 57.6 50.9
J. White J. White - 30 17.7 8.8 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 1.0 6.8 5.1 63 3.9 11.5 43.8 40.8 83.3 0.36 61.3 59.1
J. Grünloh J. Grünloh - 35 20.9 7.1 5.2 0.6 0.4 2.3 0.7 5.1 9.7 - - - 53.1 34.5 57.6 0.69 59.6 58.7
U. Onyenso U. Onyenso - 35 18.8 6.5 4.9 0.6 0.6 2.9 0.4 4.7 10.3 65 3.1 9.8 56.6 27.8 70.0 0.39 61.5 59.6
D. Hall D. Hall - 35 28.6 5.9 3.7 4.4 0.9 0.1 1.3 4.8 8.9 198 9.4 15.9 40.8 31.4 82.2 1.26 54.8 50.3
D. Tillis D. Tillis - 30 15.6 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.0 83 4.9 15.0 39.0 35.5 76.2 0.78 52.5 49.5
Elijah Gertrude Elijah Gertrude - 17 6.2 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8 1.4 30 2.3 15.8 41.9 14.3 33.3 0.16 44.9 45.2
Martin Carrere Martin Carrere - 16 4.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 -1 -0.1 -1.0 38.5 16.7 50.0 -0.18 43.2 42.3
C. Lang C. Lang - 12 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 -3 -0.3 -6.6 28.6 33.3 0.0 -0.07 31.7 35.7
Owen Odom Owen Odom - 11 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 -8 -1.1 -37.0 50.0 0.0 0 -0.16 50.0 50.0
Silas Barksdale Silas Barksdale F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Desmond Roberts Desmond Roberts - 13 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -5 -0.6 -15.3 0.0 0.0 0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG