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UCF

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: UCF Knights, UCF
Program History
Coach: Johnny Dawkins Jr

2018 Team Stats (7 games)

58.6
PPG
65.0
Opp
-6.4
Margin
39.7%
FG%
33.6%
3P%
55.9%
FT%
34.6
RPG
10.7
APG
13.6
TO
-
Est. poss./game
63.7
Adj PPG
60.0
Adj Opp PPG
#116
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1160 (#86) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1123 (#88) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1009 (#158) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +4.2 (#116) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +1.9 (#138) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.546 (#141) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.2 More → 0.696 (#109) AdjNet +7.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +7.2 More → 0.696 (#110) AdjNet +7.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.7 | AdjD 60.0 More → 0.584 (#116) AdjO 63.7 | AdjD 60.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 62.5 More → 0.498 (#172) AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 62.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.606 (#115) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.590 (#116) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 128 | GP 32 More → 1127 (#89) RD 128 | GP 32

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs Mercer Bears W 88 - 79
2017-11-15 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs W 68 - 65
2017-11-18 vs William & Mary Tribe W 75 - 64
2017-11-23 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers W 68 - 59
2017-11-24 @ West Virginia Mountaineers L 45 - 83
2017-11-26 vs St. John's Red Storm L 43 - 46
2017-11-30 vs Missouri Tigers L 59 - 62
2017-12-03 @ Alabama Crimson Tide W 65 - 62
2017-12-09 vs Southern Jaguars W 76 - 60
2017-12-12 vs SE Louisiana Lions W 61 - 53
2017-12-19 @ Stetson Hatters W 74 - 55
2017-12-21 vs South Carolina State Bulldogs W 89 - 64
2017-12-27 @ SMU Mustangs L 51 - 56
2017-12-31 @ East Carolina Pirates W 59 - 39
2018-01-03 vs Memphis Tigers W 65 - 56
2018-01-07 vs Temple Owls W 60 - 39
2018-01-10 @ UConn Huskies L 53 - 62
2018-01-16 vs Cincinnati Bearcats L 38 - 49
2018-01-20 @ South Florida Bulls W 71 - 69
2018-01-25 @ Wichita State Shockers L 62 - 81
2018-01-31 vs UConn Huskies W 70 - 61
2018-02-03 vs Houston Cougars L 65 - 69
2018-02-06 @ Cincinnati Bearcats L 40 - 77
2018-02-11 @ Memphis Tigers W 68 - 64
2018-02-14 vs South Florida Bulls W 72 - 57
2018-02-17 vs SMU Mustangs W 52 - 37
2018-02-21 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane L 61 - 70
2018-02-25 @ Temple Owls L 56 - 75
2018-03-01 vs Wichita State Shockers L 71 - 75
2018-03-04 vs Tulane Green Wave W 60 - 51
2018-03-08 vs East Carolina Pirates W 66 - 52
2018-03-09 @ Houston Cougars L 56 - 84

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
B.J. Taylor B.J. Taylor G 15 31.0 15.9 2.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 1.6 6.4 13.7 4 14 0.3 0.4 36.5 36.4 58.1 1.17 109.0 42.7
A.J. Davis A.J. Davis F 28 33.3 12.5 7.5 2.3 0.9 0.4 2.0 3.4 18.2 49 28 1.8 2.3 43.6 35.3 66.0 4.59 150.4 50.0
Tacko Fall Tacko Fall - 14 22.0 10.9 7.0 0.3 0.4 1.9 2.7 2.1 15.6 59 15 3.9 7.7 75.9 0 50.0 2.53 221.7 75.9
Ceasar DeJesus Ceasar DeJesus G 29 27.6 8.7 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.0 2.9 8.8 -12 28 -0.4 -0.6 42.2 46.7 60.0 -1.62 128.0 46.4
Dayon Griffin Dayon Griffin G 29 27.4 8.6 4.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 1.3 2.9 10.4 47 29 1.6 2.6 32.1 30.9 63.6 2.8 139.6 42.3
Terrell Allen Terrell Allen G 29 30.2 5.8 3.2 2.7 1.3 0.0 1.7 1.8 9.4 -48 29 -1.7 -2.4 43.4 20.0 70.4 -3.72 128.7 45.3
Chad Brown Chad Brown F 29 19.1 5.2 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.2 9.8 -28 29 -1.0 -2.3 55.6 0 34.6 -1.5 160.2 55.6
Chance McSpadden Chance McSpadden G 15 16.2 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.5 1.5 6.0 -47 16 -2.9 -7.1 27.3 0.0 85.7 -3.5 149.5 27.3
Djordjije Mumin Djordjije Mumin G 26 12.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 18 26 0.7 2.6 34.6 34.8 100.0 0.35 143.2 50.0
Rokas Ulvydas Rokas Ulvydas F 23 10.7 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 4.0 -41 23 -1.8 -7.9 53.8 0 33.3 -4.26 156.6 53.8
Myles Douglas Myles Douglas F 29 8.6 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.5 -38 27 -1.4 -6.6 25.0 27.3 64.3 -0.46 81.2 31.2
Nathan Laing Nathan Laing G 16 2.8 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -13 16 -0.8 -12.9 0.0 0.0 0 -3.34 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG