Model Predictions
| Model | UCF Knights | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 21.8% | 78.2% | +7.0 | ✓ (2.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +5 (56-51). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Allen * | 39 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | - |
| A.J. Davis * | 37 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Ceasar DeJesus * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Tacko Fall * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Djordjije Mumin * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dayon Griffin | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 21 | - |
| Chad Brown | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | - |
| Chance McSpadden | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Nathan Laing | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Myles Douglas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shake Milton * | 40 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 26 | - |
| Ben Emelogu * | 39 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | - |
| Jarrey Foster * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 25 | - |
| Ethan Chargois * | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Jimmy Whitt * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jahmal McMurray | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Akoy Agau | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| William Douglas | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter