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NC State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: NC State Wolfpack, NC State
Program History
Coach: Kevin Keatts

2018 Team Stats (10 games)

81.2
PPG
82.4
Opp
-1.2
Margin
47.0%
FG%
41.4%
3P%
68.0%
FT%
32.5
RPG
15.4
APG
11.1
TO
-
Est. poss./game
82.9
Adj PPG
71.9
Adj Opp PPG
#44
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1230 (#57) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1181 (#58) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1036 (#124) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +11.9 (#45) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +11.9 (#34) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.714 (#66) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +16.1 More → 0.865 (#48) AdjNet +16.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +16.2 More → 0.867 (#48) AdjNet +16.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 71.9 More → 0.731 (#44) AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 71.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.3 | AdjD 73.7 More → 0.646 (#46) AdjO 80.3 | AdjD 73.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.745 (#57) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.729 (#59) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 114 | GP 33 More → 1182 (#60) RD 114 | GP 33

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs VMI Keydets W 102 - 67
2017-11-12 vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers W 78 - 56
2017-11-14 vs Bryant Bulldogs W 95 - 72
2017-11-16 vs Presbyterian Blue Hose W 86 - 68
2017-11-22 vs Arizona Wildcats W 90 - 84
2017-11-23 @ Northern Iowa Panthers L 60 - 64
2017-11-24 @ Tennessee Volunteers L 58 - 67
2017-11-29 vs Penn State Nittany Lions W 85 - 78
2017-12-02 vs South Carolina State Bulldogs W 103 - 71
2017-12-09 vs Kansas City Roos W 88 - 69
2017-12-16 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans L 76 - 81
2017-12-19 vs Robert Morris Colonials W 81 - 69
2017-12-22 vs Jacksonville Dolphins W 116 - 64
2017-12-30 @ Clemson Tigers L 62 - 78
2018-01-03 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish L 58 - 88
2018-01-06 vs Duke Blue Devils W 96 - 85
2018-01-11 vs Clemson Tigers W 78 - 77
2018-01-14 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 51 - 68
2018-01-18 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 72 - 63
2018-01-21 vs Miami Hurricanes L 81 - 86
2018-01-24 @ Pittsburgh Panthers W 72 - 68
2018-01-27 @ North Carolina Tar Heels W 95 - 91
2018-02-03 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 76 - 58
2018-02-07 @ Virginia Tech Hokies L 75 - 85
2018-02-10 vs North Carolina Tar Heels L 89 - 96
2018-02-14 @ Syracuse Orange W 74 - 70
2018-02-17 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 90 - 84
2018-02-20 vs Boston College Eagles W 82 - 66
2018-02-25 vs Florida State Seminoles W 92 - 72
2018-03-01 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets L 75 - 78
2018-03-03 vs Louisville Cardinals W 76 - 69
2018-03-07 vs Boston College Eagles L 87 - 91
2018-03-15 @ Seton Hall Pirates L 83 - 94

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Allerik Freeman Allerik Freeman G 32 34.2 16.0 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.0 2.4 4.7 16.8 179 27 6.6 8.1 43.0 55.6 76.5 2.41 143.4 54.7
Torin Dorn Torin Dorn G 32 28.8 14.0 6.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 17.0 127 27 4.7 7.0 54.6 42.4 66.7 0.57 153.9 60.0
Omer Yurtseven Omer Yurtseven C 32 24.2 13.7 6.9 0.5 0.4 1.9 1.2 4.4 17.8 91 27 3.4 6.1 56.0 47.8 60.0 1.81 146.2 59.9
Braxton Beverly Braxton Beverly G 30 32.1 9.3 2.4 3.8 1.0 0.0 1.2 2.8 12.4 88 25 3.5 4.7 34.9 32.7 90.9 0.29 158.2 44.6
Markell Johnson Markell Johnson G 26 29.1 8.9 3.4 7.3 1.7 0.2 3.2 3.1 15.2 115 20 5.8 8.7 44.4 37.9 61.9 0.67 128.0 51.2
Lennard Freeman Lennard Freeman F 32 16.9 7.7 4.2 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 11.6 129 27 4.8 11.6 54.5 0 53.8 2.98 200.3 54.5
Sam Hunt Sam Hunt G 32 15.8 5.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.6 137 27 5.1 12.7 45.9 44.4 88.9 0.64 218.5 67.6
A. Abu A. Abu F 26 14.3 5.1 3.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.7 7.0 48 21 2.3 6.1 45.5 0.0 27.3 1.91 136.2 45.5
Darius Hicks Darius Hicks F 4 8.5 4.2 3.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 - - - - 0 0 50.0 - 965.9 0
L. Batts Jr. L. Batts Jr. G 30 13.2 3.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.6 1.5 5.3 48 24 2.0 5.9 29.5 15.0 62.5 -1.45 109.7 33.0
Shaun Kirk Shaun Kirk G 5 11.0 2.2 2.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 5.8 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Spencer Newman Spencer Newman G 6 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 -3 5 -0.6 -15.5 0.0 0 0 -2.3 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG