🐻⬇️🏀

Marshall Thundering Herd

Also known as: Marshall Thundering Herd
Program History

2026 Team Stats (29 games)

81.4
PPG
78.5
Opp
+2.9
Margin
47.3%
FG%
37.2%
3P%
72.8%
FT%
36.1
RPG
17.0
APG
11.7
TO
81.1
Pace
77.8
AdjO
79.6
AdjD
#187
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1062 (#130) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1034 (#147) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 983 (#545) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -2.1 (#193) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +10.6 (#223) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.557 (#141) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +74.3 More → 0.999 (#1) NetEff +74.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -2.2 More → 0.437 (#187) AdjNet -2.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.2 More → 0.436 (#187) AdjNet -2.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 79.6 More → 0.459 (#187) AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 79.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.9 | AdjD 77.5 More → 0.533 (#198) AdjO 78.9 | AdjD 77.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.715 (#212) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.675 (#210) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 29 More → 1031 (#207) RD 148 | GP 29

2026 Schedule & Results

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
W. Fricks W. Fricks F 29 29.7 16.3 5.8 1.4 0.9 1.6 1.2 11.1 13.7 40 1.8 4.5 55.6 34.8 67.3 0.18 64.8 63.2
J. Speer J. Speer - 29 32.3 15.2 4.1 5.6 1.2 0.1 2.4 13.1 10.8 51 2.3 3.9 38.2 37.1 81.2 -0.05 52.9 49.1
Noah Otshudi Noah Otshudi - 28 31.4 14.2 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 2.7 11.5 7.9 14 0.6 1.1 46.4 31.2 83.9 -0.53 54.7 49.5
Landen Joseph Landen Joseph - 29 17.8 8.1 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 1.2 5.8 6.8 74 3.5 13.5 49.1 41.9 71.7 0.67 62.1 59.8
M. Van Komen M. Van Komen - 19 20.1 7.6 7.1 0.5 0.3 2.4 1.7 4.2 11.9 52 2.4 6.1 77.2 0 75.9 0.24 78.5 77.2
Caleb Hollenbeck Caleb Hollenbeck - 29 17.0 5.8 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 4.7 3.6 77 3.5 9.3 42.2 41.0 41.7 0.16 60.2 60.7
W. Dubinsky W. Dubinsky - 29 18.6 5.1 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 4.3 5.3 20 0.9 3.2 35.2 38.0 77.8 -0.09 53.7 50.4
Shamarrie Hugie Shamarrie Hugie - 24 12.4 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.9 -11 -0.6 -3.8 48.0 38.5 65.6 -0.34 57.8 54.7
E. Harding E. Harding F 29 14.7 3.6 2.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 2.3 4.7 16 0.7 3.0 61.8 0.0 46.7 -0.17 59.8 61.8
A. Fuquay A. Fuquay - 26 7.6 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.8 3.3 - - - 58.7 36.4 75.0 - 66.6 63.0
Bryce Slay Bryce Slay - 22 9.1 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.1 2.2 23 1.1 7.1 30.4 35.7 86.7 -0.08 48.5 41.3
G. Moore G. Moore G 2 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 5 2.5 30.3 33.3 33.3 0 0.03 50.0 50.0
K. Spears K. Spears G 13 5.1 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.2 34 3.8 31.0 33.3 0.0 88.9 0.32 47.5 33.3
K. White K. White G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
W. Moore W. Moore G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG