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Cal Poly Mustangs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History

2022 Team Stats (24 games)

57.0
PPG
70.6
Opp
-13.6
Margin
36.6%
FG%
24.4%
3P%
66.8%
FT%
37.5
RPG
12.2
APG
16.1
TO
70.6
Est. poss./game
56.2
Adj PPG
70.4
Adj Opp PPG
#317
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 594 (#342) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 696 (#332) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +66 elo More → 830 (#339) HCA +66 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -14.1 (#309) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.1 More → -16.0 (#327) HCA +2.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.078 (#333) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -21.2 More → 0.080 (#310) AdjNet -21.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -21.7 More → 0.074 (#312) AdjNet -21.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.2 | AdjD 70.4 More → 0.216 (#317) AdjO 56.2 | AdjD 70.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.9 | AdjD 70.5 More → 0.225 (#341) AdjO 56.9 | AdjD 70.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.145 (#328) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.147 (#333) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 24 More → 675 (#336) RD 148 | GP 24

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-10 @ Santa Clara Broncos L 77 - 91
2021-11-23 vs Louisville Cardinals L 32 - 72
2021-11-26 vs St. Thomas Tommies W 63 - 51
2021-11-27 vs Montana State Bobcats L 55 - 67
2021-12-02 vs Nevada Wolf Pack L 53 - 61
2021-12-04 vs Denver Pioneers L 63 - 75
2021-12-13 @ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks L 73 - 88
2021-12-18 @ California Golden Bears L 73 - 89
2021-12-30 @ Long Beach State Beach L 54 - 76
2022-01-01 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans - Preview
2022-01-06 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 42 - 63
2022-01-08 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors L 45 - 54
2022-01-13 @ UC Riverside Highlanders - Preview
2022-01-15 @ UC Davis Aggies - Preview
2022-01-18 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners - Preview
2022-01-27 vs UC San Diego Tritons L 58 - 69
2022-01-29 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 52 - 64
2022-02-03 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 61 - 52
2022-02-05 vs Long Beach State Beach L 64 - 65
2022-02-10 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors W 56 - 55
2022-02-12 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 40 - 73
2022-02-17 vs UC Davis Aggies L 55 - 85
2022-02-19 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 53 - 59
2022-02-22 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 71 - 85
2022-02-26 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 49 - 73
2022-03-03 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 66 - 67
2022-03-05 @ UC San Diego Tritons L 48 - 90
2022-03-08 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans L 64 - 70

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Vick M. Vick G 24 35.2 10.4 4.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 6.1 -187 20 -9.3 -10.8 40.2 20.6 81.7 -0.65 46.7 41.7
M. Willett M. Willett G 24 31.5 9.0 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 1.8 9.9 3.8 -182 20 -9.1 -11.6 32.9 31.5 70.6 -1.41 42.7 40.3
J. Nielacna J. Nielacna F 23 17.3 8.1 3.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.2 7.1 3.3 -112 19 -5.9 -15.0 44.2 30.8 62.0 -1.81 50.5 47.9
H. Scanlan H. Scanlan F 22 19.5 6.5 4.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.1 5.1 6.5 -101 19 -5.3 -11.0 51.8 0 65.1 -1.53 55.0 51.8
K. Brown K. Brown F 22 22.3 6.1 4.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 6.7 4.9 -96 15 -6.4 -9.4 39.9 0.0 55.2 0.44 41.7 39.9
Annika Shah Annika Shah G 24 12.2 4.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.0 5.0 0.4 -111 19 -5.8 -17.9 29.4 22.0 81.8 -4.15 39.2 37.0
Sydney Bourland Sydney Bourland G 24 20.9 3.8 3.0 1.5 1.2 0.2 1.7 5.6 2.5 -116 20 -5.8 -10.8 28.4 14.3 40.7 -1.67 30.8 29.5
Z. Stachowski Z. Stachowski PF 14 11.8 3.7 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.6 -58 10 -5.8 -17.5 44.4 0.0 71.4 -2.71 53.8 44.4
J. Dickson J. Dickson G 22 9.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 3.5 1.2 -85 18 -4.7 -22.0 28.2 27.5 87.5 -4.39 39.9 37.2
S. Dumitrescu S. Dumitrescu G 22 11.7 2.8 3.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 4.0 1.2 -111 18 -6.2 -23.1 27.3 0.0 56.5 -5.03 31.1 27.3
J. Anousinh J. Anousinh G 21 19.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 1.1 3.0 2.8 -103 17 -6.1 -13.7 29.7 5.9 77.8 -3.1 36.8 30.5
F. Bergstrom F. Bergstrom F 11 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.6 -17 10 -1.7 -18.5 58.3 0.0 50.0 -2.57 58.1 58.3
L. Svetich L. Svetich G 10 6.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 -6 9 -0.7 -4.6 20.0 0.0 50.0 0.34 25.5 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2021-2022 Shot Zones

116 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Vick17%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Shah17%
Misses: who misses most here

M. VickAnnika Shah

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 47-116 40.5 94 M. Vick 17% (16 pts) Annika Shah 15% (14 pts) Annika Shah 17% (12 misses) M. Willett 17% (12 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Mid-range left 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Mid-range center 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Mid-range right 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Left corner 3 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Right corner 3 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Above-break 3 left 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Above-break 3 center 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Above-break 3 right 0-0 - 0 - - - -