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Cal Poly Mustangs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History

2019 Team Stats (4 games)

54.0
PPG
67.2
Opp
-13.2
Margin
33.1%
FG%
30.4%
3P%
70.0%
FT%
40.5
RPG
13.3
APG
15.3
TO
-
Est. poss./game
58.1
Adj PPG
68.3
Adj Opp PPG
#282
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 679 (#309) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 756 (#308) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +77 elo More → 873 (#309) HCA +77 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -10.0 (#270) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -11.9 (#290) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.116 (#314) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -15.6 More → 0.143 (#276) AdjNet -15.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.6 More → 0.140 (#273) AdjNet -15.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 58.1 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.283 (#282) AdjO 58.1 | AdjD 68.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.293 (#307) AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 68.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.211 (#292) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.212 (#295) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 161 | GP 26 More → 755 (#308) RD 161 | GP 26

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-06 vs Academy of Art Urban Knights W 87 - 65
2018-11-09 @ Oregon State Beavers L 54 - 79
2018-11-11 @ Sacramento State Hornets L 85 - 88
2018-11-14 @ Fresno State Bulldogs L 58 - 76
2018-11-18 @ San Francisco Dons L 62 - 65
2018-11-23 vs Illinois Fighting Illini L 51 - 74
2018-11-24 vs Pepperdine Waves L 63 - 70
2018-11-28 vs Eastern Washington Eagles W 59 - 55
2018-12-01 vs Saint Mary's Gaels L 51 - 69
2018-12-17 @ Seattle U Redhawks W 60 - 50
2018-12-28 @ UCLA Bruins L 35 - 81
2019-01-05 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 59 - 75
2019-01-12 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos W 75 - 67
2019-01-17 @ Long Beach State Beach L 58 - 61
2019-01-19 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans L 64 - 78
2019-01-24 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 54 - 71
2019-01-26 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 57 - 73
2019-02-02 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 52 - 70
2019-02-06 vs Long Beach State Beach W 66 - 59
2019-02-09 vs UC Davis Aggies L 61 - 85
2019-02-14 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 52 - 68
2019-02-16 @ UC Riverside Highlanders L 66 - 80
2019-02-21 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 68 - 75
2019-02-23 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 69 - 58
2019-02-27 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 42 - 44
2019-03-02 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors L 49 - 61
2019-03-06 @ UC Davis Aggies L 54 - 87

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Stahley D. Stahley G 4 38.8 11.8 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 2.5 11.8 7.8 -161 19 -8.5 -10.4 31.9 31.8 83.3 0.68 45.0 39.4
H. Vesela H. Vesela F 3 28.7 11.7 3.3 2.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 13.7 1.3 -99 15 -6.6 -9.7 36.6 27.3 25.0 -1.97 39.3 40.2
D. Stanback D. Stanback F 4 21.0 8.8 3.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.0 8.8 3.0 -111 21 -5.3 -10.5 40.0 66.7 75.0 -2.35 47.6 45.7
M. Willett M. Willett G 3 26.0 7.7 2.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.3 9.3 1.0 -118 20 -5.9 -10.6 28.6 38.5 100.0 -0.23 39.8 37.5
A. Roufosse A. Roufosse F 4 24.5 7.5 5.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 7.8 5.8 -189 20 -9.4 -20.7 45.2 0 50.0 -7.57 45.8 45.2
K. Nunnelley K. Nunnelley F 4 29.8 6.0 7.8 3.2 0.5 0.2 2.5 5.5 9.8 -149 21 -7.1 -11.9 36.4 16.7 87.5 -2.72 47.0 38.6
A. Hallberg A. Hallberg G 3 7.3 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.7 -0.3 -26 19 -1.4 -5.8 9.1 11.1 100.0 0.5 21.0 13.6
H. Peterson H. Peterson G 4 16.8 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.2 -85 20 -4.2 -15.4 20.0 28.6 0 -1.24 30.0 30.0
M. Holt M. Holt G 3 13.7 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.3 -56 9 -6.2 -15.1 33.3 0.0 0 -2.24 33.3 33.3
K. Brown K. Brown F 4 9.2 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 2.5 -0.5 -104 21 -5.0 -18.8 20.0 0 0 -4.45 20.0 20.0
G. Silvestri G. Silvestri G 4 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 3 19 0.2 1.6 33.3 50.0 0 0.22 50.0 50.0
J. Smith J. Smith G 3 6.3 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 -40 19 -2.1 -10.6 0.0 0.0 0 -0.88 0.0 0.0
M. Lundquist M. Lundquist F 2 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 -31 11 -2.8 -37.1 0.0 0 0 -4.78 0.0 0.0
K. Jacks K. Jacks G 1 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -14 8 -1.8 -16.8 0 0 0 -1.11 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG