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Cal Poly Mustangs

Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History

2008 Team Stats (6 games)

67.2
PPG
75.0
Opp
-7.8
Margin
42.2%
FG%
30.4%
3P%
75.9%
FT%
30.5
RPG
16.5
APG
0.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
62.3
Adj PPG
67.7
Adj Opp PPG
#229
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2007-2008
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 769 (#282) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 854 (#255) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +82 elo More โ†’ 972 (#199) HCA +82 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -5.6 (#226) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More โ†’ -7.7 (#252) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.382 (#208) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -7.9 More โ†’ 0.288 (#223) AdjNet -7.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.8 More โ†’ 0.289 (#222) AdjNet -7.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 67.7 More โ†’ 0.380 (#229) AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 67.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 66.4 More โ†’ 0.410 (#237) AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 66.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.336 (#236) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.341 (#238) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 134 | GP 31 More โ†’ 853 (#260) RD 134 | GP 31

2008 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2007-11-10 @ Oregon State Beavers L 64 - 73
2007-11-13 @ San Josรฉ State Spartans W 74 - 70
2007-11-15 vs Houston Cougars W 53 - 48
2007-11-20 @ UCLA Bruins L 83 - 107
2007-11-23 vs Fairfield Stags L 50 - 60
2007-11-29 vs San Diego State Aztecs L 70 - 80
2007-12-01 vs San Diego Toreros L 53 - 62
2007-12-08 @ Loyola Marymount Lions L 64 - 80
2007-12-12 vs Santa Clara Broncos L 72 - 79
2007-12-15 @ San Francisco Dons L 67 - 77
2007-12-18 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 58 - 83
2008-01-03 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors W 78 - 66
2008-01-05 @ Long Beach State Beach W 76 - 59
2008-01-10 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 55 - 54
2008-01-12 vs UC Irvine Anteaters W 92 - 55
2008-01-17 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 59 - 64
2008-01-19 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 58 - 75
2008-01-24 @ Pacific Tigers L 88 - 89
2008-01-26 @ UC Davis Aggies W 62 - 61
2008-02-02 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 55 - 67
2008-02-07 @ UC Irvine Anteaters W 84 - 65
2008-02-09 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans L 55 - 70
2008-02-16 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 72 - 74
2008-02-21 vs UC Davis Aggies L 47 - 53
2008-02-23 vs Pacific Tigers L 69 - 75
2008-02-27 @ UC Riverside Highlanders W 54 - 52
2008-03-06 vs Long Beach State Beach L 62 - 78
2008-03-08 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 71 - 55
2008-03-12 vs UC Irvine Anteaters W 76 - 61
2008-03-13 @ Pacific Tigers W 79 - 76
2008-03-14 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 57 - 77

2008 Roster

Minutes by Position

Not enough player minute data to plot.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Harrison M. Harrison F 6 0.0 11.5 4.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.2 7.8 - - - - 41.8 20.0 75.0 - 51.2 43.6
S. Anderson S. Anderson G 5 0.0 10.8 3.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 10.2 - - - - 38.3 35.7 81.2 - 50.0 43.6
R. Tratter R. Tratter NA 1 0.0 10.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 6.0 - - - - 50.0 0 100.0 - 56.3 50.0
A. Stewart A. Stewart G 6 0.0 7.2 0.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 6.7 - - - - 48.4 45.0 100.0 - 65.6 62.9
L. McBride L. McBride G 5 0.0 6.8 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.6 7.2 - - - - 42.4 18.2 100.0 - 48.9 45.5
K. Santiago K. Santiago C 3 0.0 6.7 5.7 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 10.0 - - - - 43.8 0 66.7 - 50.1 43.8
T. Wells T. Wells G 3 0.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 - - - - 16.7 0 50.0 - 18.5 16.7
K. Howell K. Howell PG 1 0.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 - - - - 25.0 0 0 - 25.0 25.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG