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Army Black

Also known as: Army Black Knights
Program History

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1024 (#335) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1178 (#256) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More → +14.9 (#342) HCA +3.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.395 (#77) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -14.9 More → 0.152 (#100) AdjNet -14.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.1 More → 0.150 (#100) AdjNet -15.1

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-11 @ Air Force Falcons L 71 - 87
2011-11-12 vs The Citadel Bulldogs L 72 - 83
2011-11-16 vs Marywood Pacers W 95 - 40
2011-11-19 @ Central Connecticut Blue Devils L 51 - 67
2011-11-22 vs Bryant Bulldogs W 69 - 65
2011-11-26 vs Yale Bulldogs L 75 - 84
2011-11-30 vs NJIT Highlanders L 53 - 54
2011-12-03 @ Binghamton Bearcats W 70 - 50
2011-12-07 @ Marist Red Foxes L 56 - 59
2011-12-10 @ La Salle Explorers L 64 - 76
2011-12-18 vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 61 - 59
2011-12-21 vs Dartmouth Big Green W 67 - 64
2011-12-28 @ Presbyterian Blue Hose L 64 - 71
2011-12-31 vs St. Francis Brooklyn Terriers W 79 - 70
2012-01-03 vs Longwood Lancers W 96 - 77
2012-01-07 vs Bucknell Bison L 59 - 75
2012-01-11 @ Lafayette Leopards L 63 - 75
2012-01-14 @ Navy Midshipmen W 75 - 62
2012-01-18 vs Colgate Raiders W 91 - 75
2012-01-25 vs Holy Cross Crusaders W 74 - 68
2012-01-29 @ Lehigh Mountain Hawks L 64 - 83
2012-02-04 @ Bucknell Bison L 68 - 81
2012-02-08 vs Lafayette Leopards L 74 - 90
2012-02-15 @ Colgate Raiders W 79 - 59
2012-02-18 vs American University Eagles L 50 - 74
2012-02-22 @ Holy Cross Crusaders L 51 - 82
2012-02-25 vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks L 72 - 74
2012-02-29 @ American University Eagles L 40 - 57

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
E. Ellis E. Ellis F 28 29.9 17.8 5.0 2.0 0.8 0.4 2.4 4.7 18.9 - - - 40.2 40.7 82.7 0.53 160.8 48.5
J. Simmons J. Simmons G 28 25.1 11.4 2.5 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.1 3.8 10.8 29 3.6 2.4 41.5 45.0 74.1 0.68 135.7 54.2
J. Herbeck J. Herbeck G 28 28.9 10.0 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.5 3.2 10.1 - - - 44.0 50.0 75.0 - 150.4 60.4
M. Lenox M. Lenox G 28 23.7 6.4 3.6 3.1 1.1 0.1 2.8 1.4 10.1 - - - 60.0 28.6 52.2 - 179.6 62.5
M. Washington M. Washington G 17 13.9 5.3 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 2.0 1.5 6.8 - - - 56.0 50.0 76.2 - 131.4 58.0
M. Williams M. Williams G 28 21.8 5.1 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.4 1.6 5.6 11 2.2 1.5 52.3 53.3 76.0 0.78 129.1 61.4
J. Springer J. Springer F-C 28 17.1 4.5 4.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.1 8.4 - - - 50.0 0 66.7 - 166.1 50.0
J. Pancoe J. Pancoe G 15 15.6 4.3 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.1 6.8 - - - 47.1 36.4 100.0 - 174.7 58.8
A. Stire A. Stire C 27 14.6 3.8 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.9 5.5 - - - 69.6 0 54.5 - 183.2 69.6
C. Kincade C. Kincade F 4 10.5 2.5 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 4.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 50.0 - 128.9 33.3
M. Walker M. Walker - 1 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 21 2.3 10.4 33.3 0 0 0.52 33.3 33.3
J. Harris J. Harris - 13 8.3 1.7 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.5 2.1 -1 -0.1 -0.1 50.0 75.0 80.0 0.89 134.1 75.0
J. Johnson J. Johnson F 18 6.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.6 16 1.8 1.4 53.8 0 0.0 1.19 69.1 53.8
B. Hornstein B. Hornstein C 10 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 166.7 66.7
W. Thornton W. Thornton - 26 10.8 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 2.8 - - - 42.9 0.0 28.6 - 119.0 42.9
C. Gramling C. Gramling - 13 4.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 - - - 40.0 25.0 0.0 - 73.5 50.0
S. Billerman S. Billerman G 5 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 - - - 50.0 100.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
P. Harris P. Harris - 7 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 25.8 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG