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Texas State

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Texas State Bobcats, Texas State
Program History
Coach: Terrence Johnson

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1117 (#197) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1170 (#177) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 1081 (#77) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +21.6 (#193) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → +13.7 (#145) HCA +2.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 63.5 More → 0.629 (#93) AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 63.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.811 (#108) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.788 (#106) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 127 | GP 28 More → 1202 (#69) RD 127 | GP 28

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-09 @ Incarnate Word Cardinals W 75 - 57
2021-11-12 @ LSU Tigers L 59 - 84
2021-11-14 @ Vanderbilt Commodores L 60 - 79
2021-11-19 @ Utah Tech Trailblazers W 85 - 65
2021-11-20 @ Eastern Washington Eagles W 81 - 74
2021-11-30 @ Rice Owls W 80 - 69
2021-12-05 vs Denver Pioneers W 71 - 58
2021-12-12 vs Southwestern University (TX) Pirates W 101 - 54
2021-12-15 vs Lamar Cardinals W 67 - 47
2021-12-18 vs Paul Quinn Tigers W 75 - 36
2021-12-22 @ Houston Cougars L 47 - 80
2021-12-30 vs Troy Trojans L 63 - 78
2022-01-13 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 80 - 56
2022-01-15 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 72 - 68
2022-01-20 @ Little Rock Trojans W 69 - 59
2022-01-22 @ Arkansas State Red Wolves L 60 - 67
2022-01-27 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 58 - 70
2022-01-29 vs UT Arlington Mavericks W 58 - 53
2022-02-03 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers W 68 - 66
2022-02-05 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 69 - 64
2022-02-10 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 82 - 73
2022-02-12 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 63 - 54
2022-02-17 vs Arkansas State Red Wolves W 84 - 67
2022-02-19 vs Little Rock Trojans W 68 - 50
2022-02-23 @ South Alabama Jaguars W 55 - 52
2022-02-25 @ Troy Trojans W 66 - 61
2022-03-05 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 72 - 79
2022-03-15 @ North Texas Mean Green L 63 - 67

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Harrell M. Harrell - 27 30.3 11.7 1.9 3.1 0.9 0.0 1.4 1.9 14.4 - - - 44.2 27.8 90.9 1.56 256.2 49.0
S. Adams S. Adams G 1 21.0 10.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 208 7.4 11.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 1.68 72.7 66.7
N. Ceaser N. Ceaser - 26 19.6 8.3 4.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 13.5 133 4.9 9.9 57.9 0.0 80.0 0.94 511.8 57.9
I. Small I. Small F 1 23.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 8.0 149 5.3 7.8 60.0 66.7 0 1.13 80.0 80.0
C. Asberry C. Asberry - 1 32.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 -1.0 156 5.4 7.5 37.5 0.0 0 0.84 37.5 37.5
Tyrel Morgan Tyrel Morgan - 26 14.4 4.3 3.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 6.8 106 3.9 10.7 60.0 50.0 83.3 0.74 314.6 63.3
Drue Drinnon Drue Drinnon - 27 15.8 3.8 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 4.9 84 3.0 7.2 42.9 60.0 50.0 0.44 346.1 53.6
Christian Turner Christian Turner - 2 8.5 3.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 6.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 -0.07 0 0
N. Lacewell N. Lacewell - 1 4.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 4 0.3 2.5 100.0 100.0 0 -0.05 150.0 150.0
Dylan Dawson Dylan Dawson - 24 11.8 2.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 3.1 38 1.5 5.2 25.0 30.0 100.0 0.26 267.9 37.5
D. Coleman D. Coleman - 19 7.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 2.1 -60 -1.9 -3.3 0.0 0.0 0 -0.07 366.7 0.0
B. Love B. Love F 16 5.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 2.2 21 1.2 7.9 25.0 0 100.0 0.07 194.7 25.0
D. Whitlock D. Whitlock - 5 2.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 150.0 0.0
Addison Wallace Addison Wallace F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - -0.21 - -
Nate Martin Nate Martin F 1 14.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 -2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0 0 -0.81 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG