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Tennessee State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Tennessee State Tigers
Program History
Coach: Nolan Smith

2027 Team Stats (2 games)

95.5
PPG
77.5
Opp
+18.0
Margin
45.0%
FG%
25.0%
3P%
71.7%
FT%
46.0
RPG
18.0
APG
17.0
TO
85.2
Est. poss./game
60.8
Adj PPG
76.0
Adj Opp PPG
#304
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 945 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1035, returning -74, transfers +3, freshmen -20 More → 905 (#193) Preseason prior 945 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1035, returning -74, transfers +3, freshmen -20
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 965 (#182) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +268 elo More → 898 (#238) HCA +268 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +14.4 More → -8.2 (#295) HCA +14.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +16.1 More → -22.5 (#240) HCA +16.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.012 (#266) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -35.6 More → 0.012 (#266) NetEff -35.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -12.7 More → 0.189 (#258) AdjNet -12.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -12.6 More → 0.186 (#258) AdjNet -12.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.200 (#304) AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 76.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.3 | AdjD 75.7 More → 0.197 (#240) AdjO 60.3 | AdjD 75.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.227 (#239) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.227 (#239) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 218 | GP 1 More → 893 (#224) RD 218 | GP 1

2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Murray State Racers L 64 - 94
2026-11-05 vs East West Phantoms W 127 - 61
2026-11-09 vs Fisk Bulldogs - Preview
2026-11-13 @ Tennessee Volunteers - Preview

2027 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ty-Laur Johnson Ty-Laur Johnson G 2 22.5 12.0 2.0 3.5 2.0 0.5 3.0 7.5 9.5 - - - - 46.7 33.3 80.0 - 61.9 53.3
Jayden Jones Jayden Jones G 2 21.0 11.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 7.0 10.0 - - - - 71.4 0.0 60.0 - 71.0 71.4
Deondrea Lindsey Deondrea Lindsey F 2 26.5 11.0 2.5 0.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 7.0 8.0 - - - - 42.9 0.0 100.0 - 59.8 42.9
Aaron Bradshaw Aaron Bradshaw F 2 22.5 10.0 8.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 10.0 8.0 - - - - 45.0 33.3 50.0 - 47.9 47.5
Arterio Morris Arterio Morris G 2 20.5 10.0 3.0 4.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 9.5 8.5 - - - - 31.6 22.2 75.0 - 44.4 36.8
Christian Alston Christian Alston G 2 16.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 10.0 - - - - 38.5 20.0 50.0 - 46.0 42.3
Kavien Jones Kavien Jones F 2 18.5 7.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 5.5 7.0 - - - - 63.6 33.3 0.0 - 63.1 68.2
Ajayi Simmons Ajayi Simmons G 2 8.0 7.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 10.0 - - - - 80.0 100.0 71.4 - 86.6 90.0
Maddux Bodenhamer Maddux Bodenhamer G 2 11.5 6.0 1.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.0 6.0 - - - - 50.0 66.7 100.0 - 67.6 62.5
Presley Patterson Presley Patterson G 2 14.5 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 7.0 0.5 - - - - 21.4 25.0 50.0 - 33.6 32.1
Daniel Vieira-Tuck Daniel Vieira-Tuck G 2 8.5 4.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.5 - - - - 50.0 0 100.0 - 58.1 50.0
Garrett Shelton Garrett Shelton G 1 5.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 - - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Isaiah Stewart Isaiah Stewart G 2 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 -0.5 - - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Damon Howard Jr. Damon Howard Jr. G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Josh Rivera Josh Rivera F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

149 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Jones20% Lindsey25% Bodenhamer100% Simmons50% Bradshaw33% Bodenhamer50% Johnson100% Morris50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Bradshaw31% Morris29% Bradshaw50% Bradshaw67% Simmons33% Alston40% Morris50% Stewart24% Johnson100% Patterson47%
Misses: who misses most here

Jayden JonesAaron BradshawTy-Laur JohnsonArterio MorrisDeondrea LindseyChristian AlstonMaddux BodenhamerAjayi SimmonsPresley PattersonIsaiah Stewart

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 40-53 75.5 80 Jayden Jones 20% (16 pts) Aaron Bradshaw 18% (14 pts) Aaron Bradshaw 31% (4 misses) Daniel Vieira-Tuck 23% (3 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 12-29 41.4 24 Deondrea Lindsey 25% (6 pts) Kavien Jones 25% (6 pts) Arterio Morris 29% (5 misses) Christian Alston 18% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 0-4 0.0 0 - - Aaron Bradshaw 50% (2 misses) Presley Patterson 25% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 1-4 25.0 2 Maddux Bodenhamer 100% (2 pts) - Aaron Bradshaw 67% (2 misses) Deondrea Lindsey 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 0-3 0.0 0 - - Ajayi Simmons 33% (1 misses) Christian Alston 33% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 2-7 28.6 6 Ajayi Simmons 50% (3 pts) Christian Alston 50% (3 pts) Christian Alston 40% (2 misses) Aaron Bradshaw 20% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 3-7 42.9 9 Aaron Bradshaw 33% (3 pts) Kavien Jones 33% (3 pts) Arterio Morris 50% (2 misses) Kavien Jones 50% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 4-21 19.0 12 Maddux Bodenhamer 50% (6 pts) Presley Patterson 25% (3 pts) Isaiah Stewart 24% (4 misses) Arterio Morris 18% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 center 1-2 50.0 3 Ty-Laur Johnson 100% (3 pts) - Ty-Laur Johnson 100% (1 misses) -
Above-break 3 right 4-19 21.1 12 Arterio Morris 50% (6 pts) Garrett Shelton 25% (3 pts) Presley Patterson 47% (7 misses) Arterio Morris 13% (2 misses)