Stanislaus State
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 935 (#345) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 982 (#265) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 986 (#372) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.9 (#172) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.5 (#339) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.227 (#472) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#42) | NetEff +59.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.484 (#422) | AdjNet -0.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.488 (#420) | AdjNet -0.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.518 (#408) | AdjO 72.8 | AdjD 72.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.509 (#282) | AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 70.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.472 (#337) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.480 (#332) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 982 (#250) | RD 142 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | @ | UC Merced | L | 59 - 60 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | UC Merced | L | 64 - 68 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 83 - 80 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 86 - 81 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Chico St. | L | 69 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | W | 74 - 67 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Johnson | - | 6 | 26.6 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 47.8 | 28.6 | 66.7 | 0.67 | 53.4 | 50.7 |
| Donjae Lindsey | - | 4 | 29.2 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 57 | 3.6 | 19.9 | 42.5 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 0.13 | 51.2 | 46.2 |
| Daniel Ameyaw | - | 5 | 18.8 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 30 | 1.4 | 16.2 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 39.3 | -0.97 | 57.1 | 61.4 |
| Tahjae Ordonio | - | 5 | 25.7 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 45.9 | 27.3 | 89.5 | 1.74 | 59.5 | 50.0 |
| Lloyd French | - | 6 | 29.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 37 | 1.9 | 11.9 | 40.4 | 15.4 | 81.2 | 2.06 | 48.3 | 42.3 |
| Anthony Newman-Gomez | - | 5 | 22.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 13 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 53.6 | 27.3 | 90.0 | -0.78 | 64.8 | 58.9 |
| Malik Johnson | - | 6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 29 | 7.2 | 21.0 | 56.2 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 2.19 | 57.7 | 59.4 |
| Jason Cibull | - | 6 | 16.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | -55 | -2.6 | -44.3 | 30.8 | 15.4 | 100.0 | -1.08 | 41.9 | 34.6 |
| Mark Jones III | - | 6 | 22.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1.01 | 28.8 | 23.1 |
| JJ Funk | - | 1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Javon Johnson | - | 5 | 11.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 18 | 1.1 | 31.8 | 25.0 | 12.5 | 50.0 | -0.39 | 31.1 | 29.2 |
| Jordan Smith | - | 6 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -21 | -0.8 | -29.6 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.33 | 30.4 | 22.2 |
| Samuel Chavarin | - | 1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG