Cal St. San Marcos
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1049 (#105) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1043 (#189) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 997 (#300) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +9.2 (#112) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.5 (#353) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.403 (#391) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.582 (#371) | AdjNet +2.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.592 (#369) | AdjNet +3.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.558 (#373) | AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 72.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.500 (#298) | AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 75.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.495 (#319) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.497 (#316) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1023 (#207) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | CUI | L | 74 - 77 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Biola | W | 67 - 64 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Point Loma | L | 61 - 75 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Azusa Pacific | W | 78 - 63 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Nobel | W | 85 - 50 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 82 - 92 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 75 - 82 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | W | 64 - 56 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Chico St. | W | 83 - 76 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | UC Merced | W | 62 - 57 |
| 2026-01-04 | @ | Stanislaus St. | L | 68 - 72 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | CSUSB | W | 92 - 91 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | W | 79 - 60 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Cal State LA | W | 87 - 62 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 77 - 85 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 70 - 87 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 76 - 71 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Stanislaus St. | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | UC Merced | L | 66 - 80 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 69 - 74 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | CSUSB | W | 86 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keavie Love | - | 17 | 25.9 | 15.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 14 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 45.8 | 32.1 | 84.2 | 2.14 | 60.3 | 50.9 |
| Dexter Stratton | - | 17 | 27.3 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 11.3 | 10.1 | -31 | -1.9 | -6.8 | 45.8 | 32.4 | 74.2 | -0.75 | 53.4 | 48.7 |
| Max Tengan | - | 19 | 24.0 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 46.6 | 37.5 | 79.3 | -0.57 | 57.5 | 54.7 |
| Chris Carrillo | - | 21 | 17.9 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | -29 | -1.4 | -8.5 | 45.1 | 40.0 | 85.2 | -0.86 | 60.5 | 52.5 |
| Aaron Ragen | - | 21 | 25.9 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 48 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 52.1 | 50.0 | 78.9 | 2.12 | 75.0 | 72.3 |
| Jaylin Leslie | - | 21 | 20.8 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 12 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 41.1 | 42.6 | 68.6 | 0.51 | 52.4 | 49.2 |
| Nate Simon | - | 20 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 30 | 1.6 | 11.0 | 30.6 | 25.8 | 92.0 | 0.81 | 49.2 | 38.3 |
| Micah Boone | - | 21 | 17.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | -11 | -0.6 | -4.0 | 34.4 | 20.0 | 61.4 | -3.05 | 44.3 | 38.9 |
| Remington Rofer | - | 21 | 22.4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 33.3 | 30.4 | 50.0 | -1.65 | 43.4 | 41.9 |
| Veljko Muntilak | - | 21 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | -6 | -2.0 | -8.8 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 0.01 | 40.7 | 35.3 |
| Ryan Conner | - | 3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 66.7 | 0.0 | - | 67.6 | 75.0 |
| Chanel Mballa | - | 18 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 39 | 2.2 | 50.1 | 43.8 | 0 | 0 | 2.35 | 43.8 | 43.8 |
| Myles Harvey | - | 5 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 14 | 2.8 | 175.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.06 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG