Chico St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 998 (#186) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 957 (#324) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 863 (#562) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.3 (#150) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -4.2 (#387) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.708 (#210) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.828 (#214) | AdjNet +13.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.835 (#213) | AdjNet +13.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.714 (#222) | AdjO 81.6 | AdjD 71.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.439 (#409) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 76.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.382 (#411) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.381 (#414) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 865 (#398) | RD 95 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Seattle Pacific | W | 80 - 71 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Central Wash. | L | 89 - 94 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Simpson (CA) | L | 60 - 76 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Saint Martin's | L | 64 - 81 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | UC Merced | W | 69 - 50 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Stanislaus St. | L | 54 - 57 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Pacific Union | W | 68 - 43 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 79 - 62 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 76 - 83 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Cal State LA | W | 70 - 69 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 92 - 97 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 71 - 73 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 85 - 77 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 77 - 78 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 77 - 96 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | CSUSB | L | 62 - 76 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 66 - 78 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 77 - 83 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cal State LA | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Stanislaus St. | W | 73 - 69 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | UC Merced | L | 76 - 86 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Holley | - | 21 | 36.6 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | -11 | -0.6 | -2.2 | 51.6 | 28.6 | 73.1 | 1.41 | 58.0 | 53.5 |
| Jeremiah Dargan | - | 14 | 28.1 | 13.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 23 | 1.8 | 13.1 | 37.7 | 28.4 | 81.4 | -0.66 | 48.0 | 43.1 |
| Cortevious Taylor | - | 21 | 25.7 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 51 | 2.5 | 15.9 | 35.6 | 33.3 | 80.8 | 2.09 | 50.7 | 44.4 |
| Robel Zemmo | - | 16 | 23.8 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | -62 | -4.1 | -19.7 | 47.8 | 36.0 | 68.1 | -3.47 | 59.1 | 55.8 |
| Max Walters | - | 21 | 29.5 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 42.4 | 38.0 | 66.7 | 2.02 | 56.1 | 55.6 |
| Ned Joyce | - | 17 | 25.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 6.5 | 4.4 | -56 | -3.3 | -14.9 | 39.1 | 32.2 | 68.8 | -1.56 | 49.6 | 47.7 |
| Isaiah Brewington | - | 20 | 19.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 6.5 | -25 | -1.2 | -8.9 | 54.0 | 0 | 49.1 | -2.24 | 54.4 | 54.0 |
| Braddock Kjellesvig | - | 21 | 16.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 14 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 53.9 | 14.3 | 64.7 | -2.2 | 56.3 | 54.6 |
| Kevin Kogbara | - | 6 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -6 | -6.0 | -30.9 | 33.3 | 42.9 | 50.0 | -0.83 | 43.0 | 41.7 |
| Amon Andrews | - | 18 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 31 | 1.8 | 118.3 | 26.4 | 26.8 | 71.4 | 0.08 | 41.4 | 36.8 |
| Thomas Williams | - | 4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 42 | 3.2 | 14.5 | 57.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 3.23 | 64.3 | 64.3 |
| Xan Meyer-Plettner | - | 6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.5 | 51.4 | 60.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.16 | 33.5 | 60.0 |
| Donovan Desha | - | 11 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -17 | -1.7 | -289.4 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 28.6 | -0.64 | 31.1 | 30.8 |
| Jacob Gilchrist | - | 8 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 13 | 1.6 | 72.1 | 14.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -0.06 | 31.7 | 21.4 |
| Taylor Keating | - | 4 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | - | 37.9 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG