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Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Program History

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

60.1
PPG
62.4
Opp
-2.3
Margin
37.4%
FG%
27.8%
3P%
66.1%
FT%
37.8
RPG
12.1
APG
17.7
TO
71.1
Est. poss./game
56.5
Adj PPG
66.9
Adj Opp PPG
#286
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 835 (#262) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 867 (#266) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More → 971 (#221) HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -12.0 (#292) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -10.2 (#283) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.394 (#210) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -3.1 More → 0.394 (#210) NetEff -3.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -18.0 More → 0.112 (#292) AdjNet -18.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -18.5 More → 0.105 (#294) AdjNet -18.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.5 | AdjD 66.9 More → 0.278 (#286) AdjO 56.5 | AdjD 66.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.8 | AdjD 64.4 More → 0.396 (#247) AdjO 59.8 | AdjD 64.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.254 (#278) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.275 (#275) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 30 More → 884 (#250) RD 148 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-04 @ Richmond Spiders L 49 - 83
2025-11-08 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 52 - 66
2025-11-12 @ Bucknell Bison L 45 - 49
2025-11-15 vs Morgan State Lady Bears W 69 - 47
2025-11-20 @ Loyola Maryland Greyhounds W 69 - 50
2025-11-26 vs Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks L 59 - 67
2025-12-03 @ Maryland Terrapins L 44 - 92
2025-12-07 vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks W 75 - 64
2025-12-15 vs Mercyhurst Lakers W 81 - 52
2025-12-19 vs Marist Red Foxes W 66 - 59
2025-12-21 vs Iona Gaels W 65 - 55
2025-12-29 @ Merrimack Warriors L 56 - 60
2026-01-01 @ Siena Saints L 59 - 69
2026-01-08 vs Quinnipiac Bobcats L 44 - 70
2026-01-10 @ Saint Peter's Peacocks W 55 - 51
2026-01-14 @ Manhattan Jaspers L 59 - 68
2026-01-17 vs Canisius Golden Griffins W 71 - 64
2026-01-19 vs Niagara Purple Eagles W 62 - 49
2026-01-22 @ Quinnipiac Bobcats L 43 - 56
2026-01-24 vs Merrimack Warriors L 68 - 81
2026-01-29 @ Rider Broncs W 70 - 59
2026-01-31 vs Saint Peter's Peacocks L 61 - 73
2026-02-05 @ Iona Gaels W 63 - 62
2026-02-07 @ Sacred Heart Pioneers W 68 - 63
2026-02-12 vs Fairfield Stags L 43 - 69
2026-02-19 @ Niagara Purple Eagles W 76 - 57
2026-02-21 @ Canisius Golden Griffins L 63 - 68
2026-02-26 vs Sacred Heart Pioneers W 66 - 61
2026-02-28 vs Rider Broncs W 54 - 46
2026-03-07 @ Merrimack Warriors L 48 - 62

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Gabrielle Kennerly Gabrielle Kennerly G 16 27.9 15.1 2.9 1.7 2.3 0.1 1.8 13.6 6.8 31 14 2.2 3.5 37.8 34.5 90.7 0.31 51.1 46.5
Amber Bullard Amber Bullard C 26 17.9 9.2 6.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 2.3 7.3 7.8 35 23 1.5 3.6 53.9 0 52.4 1.24 54.6 53.9
Alana Powell Alana Powell G 30 22.1 8.4 2.5 1.6 1.3 0.0 2.1 8.0 3.8 -6 27 -0.2 -0.4 40.2 38.5 72.1 -1.87 47.2 43.4
Berlynn Carlson Berlynn Carlson F 25 16.3 7.4 4.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.6 7.0 5.4 33 22 1.5 3.9 39.4 26.3 67.4 -0.47 47.1 43.7
Giana Hoddinott Giana Hoddinott G 30 27.3 6.7 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.0 1.9 6.8 4.0 7 27 0.3 0.4 33.0 29.4 84.4 -2.39 45.3 40.4
Jaedyn Jamison Jaedyn Jamison F 30 27.4 5.1 4.5 1.2 1.3 0.6 1.9 4.8 6.0 90 27 3.3 5.1 38.6 33.9 55.3 3.1 47.3 45.5
Zaria Harleaux Zaria Harleaux F 17 11.4 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 2.9 4.3 -24 16 -1.5 -5.5 44.0 0 73.0 -2.81 53.6 44.0
Kayla Lindsey Kayla Lindsey G 29 16.0 3.8 3.6 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.6 3.5 5.4 -26 26 -1.0 -2.6 39.6 0.0 51.7 -2.67 43.5 39.6
Erin Edmonds Erin Edmonds G 22 11.4 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 4.1 1.2 -40 18 -2.2 -7.4 26.4 22.6 50.0 -3.92 34.9 34.1
Nyodie Guerard Nyodie Guerard G 30 12.6 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.4 4.0 0.4 -18 27 -0.7 -2.2 25.0 20.0 73.3 -2.33 33.6 30.8
Mikaela Parris Mikaela Parris F 19 11.0 2.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.2 15 16 0.9 3.6 30.8 18.8 84.6 0.3 42.4 36.5
Teodora Ivanovic Teodora Ivanovic F 17 8.7 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.9 1.6 -10 15 -0.7 -3.3 38.0 21.4 20.0 -2.68 40.2 41.0
Wesleigh Ferguson Wesleigh Ferguson G 26 17.7 1.9 3.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.3 -33 23 -1.4 -3.4 27.5 0.0 61.1 -4.54 37.4 27.5
Deniz Torgut Deniz Torgut G 26 8.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.8 -13 23 -0.6 -2.8 25.4 22.2 42.9 -2.9 32.5 31.7
Lenora Nkangwen Lenora Nkangwen F 14 6.6 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 -6 14 -0.4 -3.2 35.7 0 55.6 -2.71 41.8 35.7

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

1762 located field-goal attempts in 30 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Bullard26% Bullard24% Powell26% Powell38% Powell39% Jamison27% Powell18% Hoddinott26% Carlson24% Kennerly29%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Bullard18% Bullard16% Powell37% Powell23% Powell20% Edmonds20% Hoddinott20% Kennerly19% Carlson28% Kennerly22%
Misses: who misses most here

Alana PowellAmber BullardGabrielle KennerlyGiana HoddinottBerlynn CarlsonJaedyn JamisonErin Edmonds

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 210-387 54.3 420 Amber Bullard 26% (110 pts) Berlynn Carlson 13% (54 pts) Amber Bullard 18% (31 misses) Alana Powell 13% (23 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 197-546 36.1 394 Amber Bullard 24% (94 pts) Alana Powell 15% (58 pts) Amber Bullard 16% (56 misses) Alana Powell 15% (54 misses)
Mid-range left 35-92 38.0 70 Alana Powell 26% (18 pts) Giana Hoddinott 14% (10 pts) Alana Powell 37% (21 misses) Giana Hoddinott 11% (6 misses)
Mid-range center 37-76 48.7 74 Alana Powell 38% (28 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 27% (20 pts) Alana Powell 23% (9 misses) Gabrielle Kennerly 23% (9 misses)
Mid-range right 18-73 24.7 36 Alana Powell 39% (14 pts) Berlynn Carlson 11% (4 pts) Alana Powell 20% (11 misses) Gabrielle Kennerly 18% (10 misses)
Left corner 3 22-71 31.0 66 Jaedyn Jamison 27% (18 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 23% (15 pts) Erin Edmonds 20% (10 misses) Giana Hoddinott 14% (7 misses)
Right corner 3 17-52 32.7 51 Alana Powell 18% (9 pts) Erin Edmonds 18% (9 pts) Giana Hoddinott 20% (7 misses) Jaedyn Jamison 20% (7 misses)
Above-break 3 left 42-193 21.8 126 Giana Hoddinott 26% (33 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 19% (24 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 19% (28 misses) Giana Hoddinott 15% (23 misses)
Above-break 3 center 37-112 33.0 111 Berlynn Carlson 24% (27 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 24% (27 pts) Berlynn Carlson 28% (21 misses) Giana Hoddinott 21% (16 misses)
Above-break 3 right 45-160 28.1 135 Gabrielle Kennerly 29% (39 pts) Giana Hoddinott 20% (27 pts) Gabrielle Kennerly 22% (25 misses) Giana Hoddinott 17% (19 misses)