Morgan State
Model Outputs
2004-2005
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 933 (#220) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 895 (#241) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1019 (#132) | HCA +110 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -10.5 (#289) | HCA +3.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -10.1 (#292) | HCA +3.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.405 (#207) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.115 (#296) | AdjNet -17.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.112 (#298) | AdjNet -18.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.298 (#288) | AdjO 61.2 | AdjD 70.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.411 (#249) | AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 68.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.291 (#272) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.312 (#265) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 915 (#221) | RD 133 | GP 30 |
2005 Schedule & Results
2005 Roster
No roster data available for this season.