🐻⬇️🏀

Miami Heat

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2018 2017
Also known as: Miami Heat
Program History

2027 Team Stats (3 games)

109.0
PPG
124.7
Opp
-15.7
Margin
42.8%
FG%
30.3%
3P%
77.2%
FT%
40.0
RPG
24.3
APG
14.3
TO
105.6
Est. poss./game
111.1
Adj PPG
120.6
Adj Opp PPG
#27
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 925 (#30) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 913 (#25) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA -7 elo More → 914 (#25) HCA -7 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +0.0 More → -2.1 (#21) HCA +0.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +0.0 More → -2.2 (#21) HCA +0.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.116 (#28) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -19.5 More → 0.116 (#28) NetEff -19.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.2 More → 0.329 (#25) AdjNet -6.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -6.2 More → 0.328 (#25) AdjNet -6.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 111.1 | AdjD 120.6 More → 0.296 (#27) AdjO 111.1 | AdjD 120.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 111.1 | AdjD 120.5 More → 0.297 (#27) AdjO 111.1 | AdjD 120.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.358 (#23) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.358 (#23) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 197 | GP 2 More → 827 (#27) RD 197 | GP 2

2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-10-21 vs Minnesota Timberwolves L 106 - 131
2026-10-23 vs Detroit Pistons L 111 - 128
2026-10-24 @ Charlotte Hornets L 110 - 115

2027 Roster

Counting stats use played regular-season games. PM and RAPM use their separate model samples; PM GP shows that sample's game count.

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Giannis Antetokounmpo Giannis Antetokounmpo F 3 29.2 28.3 8.0 3.0 1.3 0.3 3.0 18.7 19.3 - - - - 57.1 16.7 66.7 - 61.4 58.0
Davion Mitchell Davion Mitchell G 3 34.3 17.0 1.0 8.7 0.3 1.0 2.7 11.7 13.7 - - - - 51.4 46.7 80.0 - 64.7 61.4
Bam Adebayo Bam Adebayo C 3 30.9 13.0 7.0 3.7 2.0 0.3 2.3 11.7 12.0 - - - - 42.9 23.1 66.7 - 50.1 47.1
Bobby Portis Jr. Bobby Portis Jr. - 3 24.2 10.3 6.7 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 8.3 10.3 - - - - 44.0 46.2 100.0 - 58.9 56.0
Klay Thompson Klay Thompson G 3 22.4 10.0 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 9.7 2.3 - - - - 34.5 34.6 100.0 - 51.0 50.0
Pelle Larsson Pelle Larsson - 3 29.8 8.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.3 1.0 6.0 9.3 - - - - 33.3 25.0 100.0 - 53.6 38.9
Andrew Wiggins Andrew Wiggins F 3 23.8 7.7 3.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 9.3 3.7 - - - - 35.7 18.2 100.0 - 40.4 39.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. Tim Hardaway Jr. - 3 20.1 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.0 6.7 2.0 - - - - 20.0 17.6 71.4 - 34.7 27.5
Nick Richards Nick Richards - 2 2.9 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.0 - - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 116.7 116.7
Dru Smith Dru Smith - 1 5.5 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 - - - - 50.0 100.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Nikola Jović Nikola Jović - 3 14.6 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 3.3 4.3 - - - - 30.0 0.0 75.0 - 38.3 30.0
Myron Gardner Myron Gardner - 2 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 - - - - 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Ryan Conwell - 3 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 - - - - 40.0 33.3 0 - 50.0 50.0
Simone Fontecchio Simone Fontecchio - 2 2.9 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 -0.5 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

269 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (NBA Stats). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Antetokounmpo38% Antetokounmpo43% Antetokounmpo100% Wiggins33% Wiggins33% Portis38% Wiggins20% Thompson38% Mitchell60% Adebayo40%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Antetokounmpo35% Wiggins22% Antetokounmpo40% Antetokounmpo67% Jović25% Adebayo18% Wiggins19% Thompson28% Mitchell23% Hardaway28%
Misses: who misses most here

Giannis AntetokounmpoDavion MitchellBam AdebayoKlay ThompsonBobby Portis Jr.Andrew WigginsTim Hardaway Jr.Nikola Jović

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 42-62 67.7 84 Giannis Antetokounmpo 38% (32 pts) Davion Mitchell 19% (16 pts) Giannis Antetokounmpo 35% (7 misses) Bam Adebayo 15% (3 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 30-57 52.6 60 Giannis Antetokounmpo 43% (26 pts) Bam Adebayo 17% (10 pts) Andrew Wiggins 22% (6 misses) Davion Mitchell 22% (6 misses)
Mid-range left 1-11 9.1 2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 100% (2 pts) - Giannis Antetokounmpo 40% (4 misses) Bobby Portis Jr. 30% (3 misses)
Mid-range center 3-9 33.3 6 Andrew Wiggins 33% (2 pts) Bam Adebayo 33% (2 pts) Giannis Antetokounmpo 67% (4 misses) Bam Adebayo 33% (2 misses)
Mid-range right 3-11 27.3 6 Andrew Wiggins 33% (2 pts) Bobby Portis Jr. 33% (2 pts) Nikola Jović 25% (2 misses) Andrew Wiggins 12% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 8-19 42.1 24 Bobby Portis Jr. 38% (9 pts) Davion Mitchell 12% (3 pts) Bam Adebayo 18% (2 misses) Klay Thompson 18% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 5-21 23.8 15 Andrew Wiggins 20% (3 pts) Bobby Portis Jr. 20% (3 pts) Andrew Wiggins 19% (3 misses) Bam Adebayo 19% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 left 13-38 34.2 39 Klay Thompson 38% (15 pts) Bobby Portis Jr. 15% (6 pts) Klay Thompson 28% (7 misses) Tim Hardaway Jr. 16% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 5-18 27.8 15 Davion Mitchell 60% (9 pts) Klay Thompson 40% (6 pts) Davion Mitchell 23% (3 misses) Giannis Antetokounmpo 23% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right 5-23 21.7 15 Bam Adebayo 40% (6 pts) Davion Mitchell 40% (6 pts) Tim Hardaway Jr. 28% (5 misses) Klay Thompson 22% (4 misses)