Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.7% | 42.3% | -4.1 | ✓ (12.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.8% | 29.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.1% | 35.9% | -6.4 | ✓ (10.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -17 (111-128). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 29 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 15 | +4.5 |
| John Collins * | 29 | 9-15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 | +9.2 |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 5-12 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +17.5 |
| Ausar Thompson * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | +10.8 |
| Jalen Duren * | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | +10.5 |
| Paul Reed | 26 | 8-11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 23 | +0.2 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 22 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 15 | +11.2 |
| Ronald Holland II | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | +0.5 |
| Kevin Huerter | 20 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -3.3 |
| Isaiah Joe | 18 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | -10.4 |
| Javonte Green | 13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +1.1 |
| Tolu Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.3 |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 33 | 15-26 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 27 | -16.0 |
| Davion Mitchell * | 32 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 12 | -18.0 |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 25 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | -15.7 |
| Klay Thompson * | 24 | 2-11 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | -14.8 |
| Bam Adebayo * | 23 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -17.9 |
| Pelle Larsson | 29 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4.6 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 21 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +3.1 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 21 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | +9.1 |
| Nikola Jović | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Dru Smith | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +7.8 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +2.2 |
| Myron Gardner | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Nick Richards | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Ryan Conwell | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2.2 |
* = starter