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Mercer

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Mercer Bears
Program History
Coach: Bob Hoffman

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1013 (#168) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1027 (#155) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1055 (#90) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +0.6 (#160) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → -1.1 (#178) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.603 (#112) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.9 More → 0.526 (#156) AdjNet +0.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.9 More → 0.526 (#156) AdjNet +0.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 71.2 More → 0.518 (#158) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 71.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 71.0 More → 0.506 (#157) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 71.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.545 (#154) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.542 (#153) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 108 | GP 32 More → 1036 (#142) RD 108 | GP 32

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 @ UCF Knights L 79 - 88
2017-11-12 vs Toccoa Falls Eagles W 110 - 43
2017-11-14 vs Jackson State Tigers W 86 - 58
2017-11-17 @ Liberty Flames W 63 - 48
2017-11-18 @ Drexel Dragons W 78 - 59
2017-11-19 @ Colorado Buffaloes L 70 - 79
2017-11-26 vs Hiwassee Tigers W 90 - 53
2017-11-29 @ Tennessee Volunteers L 60 - 84
2017-12-02 @ Memphis Tigers L 81 - 83
2017-12-09 vs Florida A&M Rattlers W 82 - 64
2017-12-17 @ La Salle Explorers L 85 - 95
2017-12-19 @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 79 - 80
2017-12-28 vs Kennesaw State Owls W 89 - 56
2017-12-31 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 55 - 74
2018-01-06 @ Furman Paladins L 71 - 74
2018-01-10 @ Western Carolina Catamounts L 56 - 58
2018-01-13 vs Samford Bulldogs W 81 - 50
2018-01-15 vs Chattanooga Mocs W 75 - 71
2018-01-18 @ VMI Keydets W 62 - 56
2018-01-20 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans L 66 - 70
2018-01-24 @ East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 75 - 84
2018-01-27 vs The Citadel Bulldogs L 74 - 76
2018-02-01 vs Furman Paladins L 73 - 85
2018-02-03 vs Wofford Terriers W 73 - 65
2018-02-10 @ Chattanooga Mocs W 84 - 75
2018-02-12 @ Samford Bulldogs W 74 - 69
2018-02-15 vs VMI Keydets W 82 - 58
2018-02-17 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 77 - 74
2018-02-20 vs Western Carolina Catamounts W 81 - 64
2018-02-23 @ The Citadel Bulldogs W 83 - 70
2018-02-25 @ Wofford Terriers W 69 - 68
2018-03-03 vs Wofford Terriers L 53 - 73
2018-03-14 @ Grand Canyon Lopes W 78 - 73
2018-03-19 @ North Texas Mean Green L 67 - 96

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordan Strawberry Jordan Strawberry G 29 31.3 12.6 3.9 5.0 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.9 19.7 - - - - 42.3 40.0 88.9 - 609.1 50.0
Demetre Rivers Demetre Rivers G 29 28.1 11.2 3.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.4 14.3 - - - - 46.2 33.3 100.0 - 1209.1 53.8
Ria'n Holland Ria'n Holland G 1 31.0 10.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 18.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Ross Cummings Ross Cummings G 22 18.3 10.0 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 11.6 - - - - 30.0 37.5 100.0 - 1011.0 45.0
Stephon Jelks Stephon Jelks F 29 25.3 9.0 6.9 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 17.1 - - - - 45.5 40.0 0 - 1190.9 54.5
Desmond Ringer Desmond Ringer F 29 25.3 8.5 5.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.8 0.7 12.6 - - - - 47.4 0.0 77.8 - 537.9 47.4
Ethan Stair Ethan Stair G 16 18.8 6.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.6 0.0 10.2 - - - - 0 0 75.0 - 3068.2 0
Cory Kilby Cory Kilby F 28 15.1 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 6.9 - - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 2850.0 75.0
Marcus Cohen Marcus Cohen G 28 14.5 3.8 1.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.3 5.9 - - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 588.9 33.3
Jaylen Stowe Jaylen Stowe G 29 13.1 3.2 3.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.5 - - - - 20.0 0.0 100.0 - 790.8 20.0
Ryan Johnson Ryan Johnson G 26 7.8 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.2 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 775.0 0.0
Mason Green Mason Green F 13 4.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.3 - - - - 100.0 0 0 - 1000.0 100.0
Mac Brydon Mac Brydon - 12 2.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG