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Cal Poly Mustangs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History

2017 Team Stats (4 games)

60.5
PPG
72.8
Opp
-12.2
Margin
36.2%
FG%
25.9%
3P%
67.2%
FT%
36.0
RPG
12.0
APG
14.3
TO
-
Est. poss./game
65.0
Adj PPG
67.0
Adj Opp PPG
#185
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 744 (#291) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 854 (#264) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More → 938 (#247) HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -1.5 (#180) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -1.8 (#188) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.451 (#194) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -2.6 More → 0.426 (#183) AdjNet -2.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.5 More → 0.428 (#181) AdjNet -2.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 67.0 More → 0.454 (#185) AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 67.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 67.3 More → 0.442 (#201) AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 67.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.388 (#207) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.386 (#213) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 138 | GP 29 More → 822 (#277) RD 138 | GP 29

2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-11 @ Stanford Cardinal L 55 - 83
2016-11-13 @ Sacramento State Hornets L 96 - 97
2016-11-18 vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks W 58 - 53
2016-11-20 @ UCLA Bruins L 64 - 80
2016-11-25 vs North Dakota State Bison W 73 - 46
2016-11-26 vs Utah Valley Wolverines W 77 - 65
2016-12-01 vs Saint Mary's Gaels L 71 - 79
2016-12-03 vs Pepperdine Waves W 62 - 52
2016-12-10 @ Grand Canyon Lopes L 59 - 64
2016-12-17 vs San Francisco Dons L 67 - 73
2016-12-20 @ Montana State Bobcats L 52 - 71
2016-12-31 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 49 - 57
2017-01-05 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos W 78 - 67
2017-01-07 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 79 - 68
2017-01-12 @ UC Riverside Highlanders L 59 - 68
2017-01-14 @ Long Beach State Beach L 80 - 83
2017-01-19 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 79 - 87
2017-01-21 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors W 70 - 63
2017-01-28 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 57 - 66
2017-02-02 vs UC Davis Aggies L 53 - 61
2017-02-04 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 69 - 72
2017-02-09 @ UC Irvine Anteaters W 78 - 60
2017-02-11 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans W 69 - 45
2017-02-16 vs Long Beach State Beach W 69 - 67
2017-02-18 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 71 - 74
2017-02-22 @ UC Davis Aggies L 75 - 83
2017-03-01 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 73 - 57
2017-03-04 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 63 - 77
2017-03-07 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine L 50 - 71

2017 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
H. Gilbert H. Gilbert F 4 33.0 16.5 4.0 0.2 2.0 1.0 1.8 14.0 8.0 - - - - 51.8 0 57.1 - 53.1 51.8
L. Leaupepe L. Leaupepe G 4 30.0 12.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.2 2.8 14.2 6.2 - - - - 31.6 12.5 72.2 - 38.5 32.5
A. Lovely A. Lovely F 4 32.2 8.0 5.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 7.0 9.2 - - - - 42.9 30.0 100.0 - 53.0 48.2
D. Leaupepe D. Leaupepe G 4 27.0 7.8 4.0 2.0 1.5 0.2 2.5 11.8 1.2 - - - - 21.3 16.7 71.4 - 29.2 22.3
G. Grupalo G. Grupalo G 4 14.8 7.0 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.8 5.5 3.8 - - - - 50.0 37.5 75.0 - 58.9 56.8
B. Holt B. Holt G 3 7.0 2.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.3 - - - - 33.3 40.0 0 - 44.4 44.4
D. Stahley D. Stahley G 4 27.0 2.2 1.8 3.0 0.8 0.0 2.0 3.0 2.8 - - - - 25.0 25.0 50.0 - 34.9 33.3
M. Evans M. Evans F 4 6.0 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.5 - - - - 30.0 25.0 0 - 40.0 40.0
E. Anderson E. Anderson F 3 4.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 -0.3 - - - - 20.0 25.0 0 - 30.0 30.0
K. Nunnelley K. Nunnelley F 4 6.8 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 - - - - 33.3 0 25.0 - 31.5 33.3
N. Fausey N. Fausey C 4 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
K. Wong K. Wong G 4 8.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 - - - - 25.0 0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Z. Cormier Z. Cormier G 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Smith J. Smith G 3 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG