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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History

2017 Team Stats (5 games)

60.6
PPG
75.4
Opp
-14.8
Margin
32.8%
FG%
32.0%
3P%
65.4%
FT%
37.8
RPG
9.6
APG
17.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
57.5
Adj PPG
70.9
Adj Opp PPG
#305
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 809 (#258) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 780 (#303) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More → 889 (#303) HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -14.1 (#304) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -14.1 (#312) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.117 (#311) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -21.6 More → 0.076 (#305) AdjNet -21.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.0 More → 0.073 (#305) AdjNet -22.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 70.9 More → 0.228 (#305) AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 70.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 69.6 More → 0.278 (#320) AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 69.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.182 (#309) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.190 (#310) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 132 | GP 32 More → 782 (#304) RD 132 | GP 32

2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-11 @ Oklahoma State Cowgirls L 34 - 76
2016-11-16 @ Austin Peay Governors L 55 - 62
2016-11-19 @ Tennessee State Lady Tigers L 66 - 76
2016-11-22 vs Florida Gators L 60 - 71
2016-11-27 @ Iowa State Cyclones L 53 - 105
2016-12-02 @ Wichita State Shockers L 51 - 69
2016-12-06 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 83 - 80
2016-12-11 vs South Florida Bulls L 59 - 78
2016-12-14 @ UT Martin Skyhawks L 63 - 68
2016-12-19 vs Kennesaw State Owls W 70 - 67
2016-12-20 @ Northern Kentucky Norse L 78 - 83
2016-12-21 vs California Golden Bears L 55 - 80
2016-12-29 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 71 - 56
2016-12-31 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 72 - 80
2017-01-05 @ App State Mountaineers L 50 - 76
2017-01-07 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 55 - 57
2017-01-14 @ Little Rock Trojans L 59 - 73
2017-01-19 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 56 - 53
2017-01-21 vs Troy Trojans L 75 - 83
2017-01-26 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 60 - 72
2017-01-28 @ UL Monroe Warhawks L 51 - 59
2017-02-02 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 60 - 52
2017-02-04 vs App State Mountaineers L 72 - 81
2017-02-09 @ Texas State Bobcats L 43 - 63
2017-02-11 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 58 - 69
2017-02-17 vs Little Rock Trojans L 35 - 60
2017-02-23 vs Georgia State Panthers W 59 - 57
2017-02-25 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 76 - 84
2017-03-02 @ Troy Trojans L 77 - 90
2017-03-04 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 49 - 71
2017-03-07 @ Georgia Southern Eagles W 61 - 54
2017-03-09 @ Troy Trojans L 72 - 105

2017 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Ford J. Ford G 4 19.0 10.5 1.5 0.2 1.8 0.2 0.8 9.0 4.5 - - - - 30.6 32.0 70.6 - 48.3 41.7
T. Hopkins T. Hopkins F 5 19.8 8.4 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.6 8.2 2.8 - - - - 36.6 54.5 46.2 - 44.9 43.9
S. Taylor S. Taylor G 5 19.4 6.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.0 2.2 7.0 1.2 - - - - 34.3 0.0 72.7 - 40.2 34.3
T. Hopkins T. Hopkins G 1 31.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 - - - - 20.0 0 75.0 - 37.0 20.0
M. Heckert M. Heckert F 2 24.0 4.5 6.5 1.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 7.5 4.5 - - - - 26.7 0.0 100.0 - 29.1 26.7
P. Tennison P. Tennison G 5 9.0 3.2 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.4 2.6 - - - - 41.7 37.5 75.0 - 58.1 54.2

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG