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Appalachian State Mountaineers

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: App State
Program History

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

62.6
PPG
61.5
Opp
+1.1
Margin
42.4%
FG%
32.0%
3P%
65.6%
FT%
35.9
RPG
14.1
APG
16.0
TO
67.2
Est. poss./game
59.5
Adj PPG
60.7
Adj Opp PPG
#181
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 813 (#271) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 897 (#246) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More → 901 (#292) HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -1.1 (#177) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -2.0 (#183) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.352 (#224) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -4.8 More → 0.352 (#224) NetEff -4.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -1.3 More → 0.463 (#177) AdjNet -1.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.2 More → 0.466 (#176) AdjNet -1.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.5 | AdjD 60.7 More → 0.474 (#181) AdjO 59.5 | AdjD 60.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 61.5 More → 0.434 (#220) AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 61.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.401 (#209) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.393 (#218) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 160 | GP 28 More → 846 (#279) RD 160 | GP 28

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Western Michigan Broncos W 65 - 45
2025-11-07 vs Bob Jones Bruins W 110 - 35
2025-11-12 vs Davidson Wildcats L 55 - 74
2025-11-16 vs Wofford Terriers W 77 - 50
2025-11-20 @ West Virginia Mountaineers L 51 - 80
2025-11-22 @ UNC Asheville Bulldogs W 64 - 40
2025-11-25 vs Norfolk State Spartans W 66 - 38
2025-12-01 @ Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs W 63 - 53
2025-12-07 @ Clemson Tigers L 59 - 78
2025-12-17 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 62 - 75
2025-12-20 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 54 - 67
2025-12-29 vs Carolina University Bruins W 82 - 31
2026-01-03 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 48 - 53
2026-01-07 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 53 - 69
2026-01-10 vs Southern Miss Lady Eagles W 82 - 59
2026-01-14 @ Old Dominion Monarchs L 54 - 65
2026-01-17 @ Georgia State Panthers L 57 - 79
2026-01-21 @ Texas State Bobcats L 49 - 63
2026-01-23 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 68 - 48
2026-01-29 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 60 - 57
2026-01-30 vs UL Monroe Warhawks L 70 - 78
2026-02-04 @ Troy Trojans L 59 - 69
2026-02-07 @ Kent State Golden Flashes L 63 - 68
2026-02-11 vs James Madison Dukes L 53 - 60
2026-02-14 vs Georgia State Panthers W 73 - 67
2026-02-18 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 64 - 65
2026-02-21 @ James Madison Dukes L 48 - 74
2026-02-25 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 48 - 62
2026-02-27 vs Old Dominion Monarchs L 65 - 75
2026-03-03 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 57 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Emma Smith Emma Smith G 30 34.4 10.7 6.1 3.6 2.1 0.1 2.3 8.1 12.1 17 26 0.7 0.8 47.1 38.2 74.3 2.82 58.4 55.1
Daisia Mitchell Daisia Mitchell G 30 27.3 10.5 3.9 2.1 1.5 0.5 2.7 9.8 6.0 -2 26 -0.1 -0.1 42.3 29.6 68.9 0.61 49.1 46.4
Jayden McBride Jayden McBride G 23 25.0 8.9 2.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.0 8.8 3.0 14 19 0.7 1.2 36.5 31.4 63.3 -0.72 47.2 45.6
Elena Pericic Elena Pericic F 30 25.6 8.0 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 1.6 7.0 6.1 -68 26 -2.6 -4.2 39.8 30.3 68.0 -2.51 51.3 48.6
Addie Biel Addie Biel F 28 12.8 6.6 2.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.8 4.7 4.5 27 24 1.1 3.5 54.2 0.0 64.2 1.2 57.6 54.2
Emily Hege Emily Hege G 30 20.8 6.2 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 2.2 5.7 3.5 -40 26 -1.5 -3.0 35.3 36.1 72.7 -3.53 47.9 42.9
F. Atili F. Atili F 30 18.4 6.0 3.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.6 5.4 4.3 8 26 0.3 0.7 49.1 0 60.0 1.21 50.7 49.1
Jada Burton Jada Burton G 30 19.5 3.9 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 3.5 3.7 -52 26 -2.0 -4.2 40.6 30.8 67.6 -3.1 48.4 44.3
Riley Stoker Riley Stoker G 27 12.3 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 14 24 0.6 2.1 48.8 23.1 50.0 0.95 53.3 52.3
Isa Roman Isa Roman G 23 5.9 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.6 -8 19 -0.4 -3.0 35.0 25.0 55.6 -2.88 44.4 42.5
Zoe McCrary Zoe McCrary F 27 7.9 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 3 22 0.1 0.8 28.9 0 44.0 -2.27 33.7 28.9
Marta Gutierrez Marta Gutierrez G 7 3.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 - - - - 0.0 0.0 75.0 -2.51 39.9 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

1633 located field-goal attempts in 30 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Biel21% Atili22% Mitchell40% Smith50% Hege24% Mitchell21% Pericic38% Smith29% Hege28% Pericic27%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Mitchell17% Atili18% Mitchell30% Mitchell31% Hege27% McBride30% Pericic53% McBride26% McBride24% Pericic25%
Misses: who misses most here

Daisia MitchellEmma SmithElena PericicJayden McBrideF. AtiliEmily HegeAddie Biel

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 209-342 61.1 418 Addie Biel 21% (86 pts) Emma Smith 17% (72 pts) Daisia Mitchell 17% (22 misses) Emma Smith 16% (21 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 252-555 45.4 504 F. Atili 22% (110 pts) Daisia Mitchell 21% (104 pts) F. Atili 18% (56 misses) Daisia Mitchell 18% (55 misses)
Mid-range left 30-86 34.9 60 Daisia Mitchell 40% (24 pts) Emma Smith 27% (16 pts) Daisia Mitchell 30% (17 misses) Emma Smith 16% (9 misses)
Mid-range center 8-34 23.5 16 Emma Smith 50% (8 pts) Daisia Mitchell 25% (4 pts) Daisia Mitchell 31% (8 misses) Elena Pericic 15% (4 misses)
Mid-range right 17-62 27.4 34 Emily Hege 24% (8 pts) Daisia Mitchell 18% (6 pts) Emily Hege 27% (12 misses) Daisia Mitchell 22% (10 misses)
Left corner 3 19-49 38.8 57 Daisia Mitchell 21% (12 pts) Elena Pericic 21% (12 pts) Jayden McBride 30% (9 misses) Daisia Mitchell 13% (4 misses)
Right corner 3 24-62 38.7 72 Elena Pericic 38% (27 pts) Jayden McBride 17% (12 pts) Elena Pericic 53% (20 misses) Jayden McBride 13% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 left 68-228 29.8 204 Emma Smith 29% (60 pts) Jayden McBride 29% (60 pts) Jayden McBride 26% (41 misses) Emma Smith 21% (33 misses)
Above-break 3 center 25-66 37.9 75 Emily Hege 28% (21 pts) Daisia Mitchell 24% (18 pts) Jayden McBride 24% (10 misses) Daisia Mitchell 20% (8 misses)
Above-break 3 right 41-149 27.5 123 Elena Pericic 27% (33 pts) Jayden McBride 17% (21 pts) Elena Pericic 25% (27 misses) Daisia Mitchell 19% (20 misses)