Albany
Model Outputs
2017-2018
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ | 1015 (#165) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ | 1066 (#121) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | 1038 (#120) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More โ | +1.3 (#151) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | +1.1 (#151) | HCA +2.8 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ | 0.707 (#70) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More โ | 0.534 (#153) | AdjNet +1.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More โ | 0.537 (#152) | AdjNet +1.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More โ | 0.537 (#140) | AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 69.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More โ | 0.548 (#119) | AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 68.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More โ | 0.546 (#152) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More โ | 0.548 (#148) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More โ | 1030 (#148) | RD 151 | GP 31 |
2018 Schedule & Results
2018 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Cremo
|
G | 29 | 35.0 | 17.7 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 23.0 | 155 | 30 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 76.5 | 2.53 | 407.4 | 52.1 |
Travis Charles
|
F | 28 | 29.3 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 19.3 | 148 | 29 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 42.2 | 0 | 80.0 | 4.03 | 395.9 | 42.2 |
David Nichols
|
G | 29 | 33.6 | 14.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 147 | 30 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 34.2 | 25.0 | 75.0 | 2.65 | 496.8 | 39.5 |
Greig Stire
|
F | 29 | 30.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.4 | 72 | 30 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 48.3 | 0.0 | 63.6 | -1.31 | 366.4 | 48.3 |
Devonte Campbell
|
F | 28 | 31.0 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 11.2 | -2 | 29 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 31.8 | 16.7 | 100.0 | -6.02 | 390.5 | 34.1 |
Ahmad Clark
|
G | 26 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 50 | 27 | 1.9 | 7.3 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 77.8 | -0.29 | 574.8 | 80.0 |
Costa Anderson
|
G | 25 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 84 | 27 | 3.1 | 11.6 | 33.3 | 31.2 | 100.0 | 0.46 | 241.0 | 47.2 |
Matt Conway
|
- | 21 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.7 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 670.1 | 0.0 |
Xavier Cochran
|
- | 11 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Nick Fruscio
|
G | 4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -3 | 5 | -0.6 | -19.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG