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Arkansas State Red Wolves 11-13
@
2021-02-16
Texas State Bobcats 18-7

Model Predictions

Model Arkansas Sta... Texas State Bobcats Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 13.3% (#207) 86.7% (#92) Texas S... -12.0 65-77
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 19.6% (#246) 80.4% (#86) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 25.1% (#254) 74.9% (#190) Texas S... -6.0 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 35.8% (#211) 64.2% (#88) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 22.9% (#258) 77.1% (#183) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 22.9% (#258) 77.1% (#183) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 34.8% (#256) 65.2% (#184) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Arkansas Sta... Texas State Bobcats
Games 23 22
PPG 72.7 66.4
FG% 45.0% 46.5%
3PT% 37.9% 38.5%
FT% 72.6% 72.0%
RPG 36.7 32.5
APG 14.5 13.5
SPG 6.5 6.8
BPG 2.8 2.7
TOPG 13.0 13.0

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Arkansas Sta... Texas State Bobcats
Adj. Off Eff 95.5 99.0
Adj. Def Eff 104.5 101.0
Adj. Net Eff -9.1 -2.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Arkansas State Red Wolves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Marquis Eaton 14.1 3.1 5.0 1.0 0.3 31.7
Caleb Fields 11.0 3.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 29.9
Norchad Omier 12.4 12.0 0.7 1.1 1.4 26.4
Christian Willis 7.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 22.9
Keyon Wesley 7.5 4.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 21.9

Texas State Bobcats Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Mason Harrell 14.0 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 36.2
Shelby Adams 6.1 4.3 1.5 1.6 0.1 31.1
Caleb Asberry 13.0 4.5 1.9 1.1 0.2 29.1
Isiah Small 11.3 5.5 1.7 0.9 1.1 29.0
Marlin Davis 4.2 3.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 25.8