VCU
Model Outputs
2004-2005
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1114 (#76) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1085 (#103) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1057 (#79) | HCA +110 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.3 (#118) | HCA +3.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.9 (#123) | HCA +3.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.645 (#88) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.637 (#123) | AdjNet +4.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.638 (#123) | AdjNet +4.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.574 (#112) | AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 65.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.566 (#96) | AdjO 69.1 | AdjD 66.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.621 (#101) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.620 (#97) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1100 (#94) | RD 116 | GP 32 |
2005 Schedule & Results
2005 Roster
No roster data available for this season.