UMass Lowell River Hawks
Model Outputs
2021-2022
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1018 (#267) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1143 (#203) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 969 (#525) | HCA +115 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +20.7 (#219) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.7 (#222) | HCA +2.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.550 (#178) | AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 66.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.642 (#234) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.614 (#234) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 940 (#305) | RD 145 | GP 27 |
2022 Schedule & Results
2022 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalil Thomas
|
- | 1 | 28.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 139 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 0 |
M. Watkins
|
- | 1 | 32.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | -56 | -1.9 | -2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.18 | 0 | 0 |
M. Klanjscek
|
- | 1 | 38.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.88 | 0 | 0 |
Al. Blunt
|
- | 27 | 32.9 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 13.8 | 134 | 4.3 | 10.9 | 40.7 | 36.8 | 46.7 | 1.31 | 234.0 | 46.6 |
A. Hikim
|
- | 26 | 25.6 | 11.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 12.7 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47.1 | 16.7 | 71.4 | -0.26 | 270.0 | 48.0 |
J. Faison
|
- | 1 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 88 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 |
M. Brooks
|
- | 25 | 23.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 17.7 | 145 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 59.1 | 0 | 64.7 | 1.3 | 262.2 | 59.1 |
E. Hammond
|
- | 27 | 25.6 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 11.5 | 49 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 34.8 | 83.3 | 0.09 | 206.6 | 38.9 |
J. Hall
|
F | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | -48 | -1.8 | -4.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 | 0 | 0 |
Q. Mincey
|
- | 26 | 17.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 114 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 45.5 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.92 | 278.0 | 52.3 |
D. Jordan-Thomas
|
- | 9 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 40 | 4.0 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1950.0 | 0.0 |
A. Blunt
|
- | 27 | 16.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 134 | 4.3 | 10.9 | 35.0 | 41.7 | 70.0 | 1.31 | 217.2 | 47.5 |
C. Efretuei
|
C | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -30 | -1.6 | -6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.15 | 0 | 0 |
E. Acquah
|
- | 5 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG