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Texas State

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Texas State Bobcats, Texas State
Program History
Coach: Terrence Johnson

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

73.5
PPG
70.7
Opp
+2.8
Margin
46.7%
FG%
32.3%
3P%
75.7%
FT%
35.7
RPG
13.2
APG
12.3
TO
79.0
Pace
69.3
AdjO
75.4
AdjD
#254
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1039 (#147) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 997 (#185) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1032 (#133) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -6.6 (#263) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +10.6 (#224) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.477 (#191) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -2.9 More → 0.420 (#194) NetEff -2.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -7.8 More → 0.291 (#251) AdjNet -7.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.9 More → 0.286 (#252) AdjNet -7.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 75.4 More → 0.366 (#254) AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 75.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.1 | AdjD 70.7 More → 0.532 (#200) AdjO 72.1 | AdjD 70.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.704 (#220) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.678 (#209) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 154 | GP 30 More → 1069 (#170) RD 154 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Bowling Green Falcons L 48 - 83
2025-11-05 vs Texas A&M-San Antonio Jaguars W 114 - 55
2025-11-08 @ Tulane Green Wave L 71 - 79
2025-11-12 vs UTSA Roadrunners W 80 - 69
2025-11-15 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 77 - 67
2025-11-18 vs Abilene Christian Wildcats W 63 - 49
2025-11-21 vs Little Rock Trojans W 65 - 56
2025-11-24 vs Texas Lutheran Bulldogs W 93 - 41
2025-11-28 @ Seattle U Redhawks L 52 - 66
2025-11-29 vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks L 74 - 78
2025-12-03 @ Rice Owls L 72 - 77
2025-12-17 vs Arkansas State Red Wolves L 70 - 89
2025-12-20 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 67 - 65
2025-12-31 @ Troy Trojans L 80 - 100
2026-01-03 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 84 - 79
2026-01-08 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 70 - 80
2026-01-10 @ Arkansas State Red Wolves L 82 - 83
2026-01-14 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 59 - 54
2026-01-22 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 70 - 72
2026-01-24 @ James Madison Dukes L 57 - 82
2026-01-28 vs Marshall Thundering Herd W 72 - 68
2026-01-31 vs Old Dominion Monarchs W 81 - 64
2026-02-04 @ Georgia Southern Eagles W 77 - 71
2026-02-07 vs Western Michigan Broncos W 77 - 61
2026-02-11 vs Troy Trojans W 74 - 62
2026-02-14 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 95 - 84
2026-02-19 @ South Alabama Jaguars W 90 - 82
2026-02-21 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 54 - 67
2026-02-27 vs App State Mountaineers W 60 - 57
2026-03-06 vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 77 - 81

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dj Hall Dj Hall - 30 30.1 16.0 7.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 1.8 11.1 14.9 -14 -0.6 -1.0 55.1 35.3 78.7 -0.12 61.1 56.0
M. Drone M. Drone - 28 31.0 14.2 3.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 2.6 12.3 6.7 -59 -2.7 -4.3 42.9 25.6 83.3 -0.17 51.5 46.2
Dimp Pernell Dimp Pernell - 11 21.2 8.8 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 1.1 6.9 6.0 63 5.7 13.2 47.4 40.6 66.7 0.1 57.8 55.9
K. Gumbs K. Gumbs - 30 28.1 8.2 2.7 3.0 1.8 0.2 2.1 6.4 7.3 79 3.0 5.7 46.6 40.5 84.2 -0.26 56.2 51.0
F. Emmou F. Emmou - 30 22.2 7.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 5.6 4.7 12 0.5 1.1 44.6 43.4 84.8 0.1 57.8 54.5
M. Willis M. Willis C 30 12.9 5.8 3.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 4.6 4.6 -72 -3.0 -11.3 50.4 0.0 76.1 -0.64 54.9 50.4
K. Davis K. Davis - 27 23.7 5.6 3.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 1.0 5.5 5.6 10 0.4 6.8 35.8 22.9 70.7 -0.48 45.5 41.2
J. Bolden J. Bolden G 30 16.0 5.1 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.7 4.8 3.3 9 0.4 1.1 41.7 35.5 52.4 -0.63 49.9 49.3
Robert Fields Robert Fields - 28 15.8 5.0 3.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 2.9 6.8 52 2.4 6.8 53.8 0.0 68.4 0.42 61.0 53.8
Ky Pernell Ky Pernell - 2 9.5 4.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 -13 -4.3 -16.4 37.5 33.3 100.0 -0.15 50.7 43.8
T. Sant T. Sant C 30 14.0 2.8 2.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.8 4.7 - - - 56.4 0 60.0 - 58.9 56.4
J. Lee J. Lee - 19 6.9 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.4 1.5 0 0.0 0.0 41.3 27.3 75.0 0.12 49.2 47.8
Deke Thompson Deke Thompson - 3 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 - - - 60.0 50.0 0 0.02 70.0 70.0
I. Barganier I. Barganier F 5 3.0 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 25 4.2 249.0 40.0 0.0 75.0 0.02 51.8 40.0
Cameron Simpson Cameron Simpson - 4 4.5 0.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 6 1.5 53.9 25.0 0.0 0 -0.11 25.0 25.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG