Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | UT Rio Grand... | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
80.8% (#81) | 19.2% (#258) | Texas S... -13.6 | 82-68 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
47.3% (#72) | 52.7% (#275) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
31.6% (#77) | 68.4% (#261) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
62.5% (#84) | 37.5% (#247) | Texas S... -5.6 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
61.3% (#83) | 38.7% (#247) | Texas S... -5.1 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
83.2% (#93) | 16.8% (#189) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
72.6% (#90) | 27.4% (#211) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
72.8% (#90) | 27.2% (#211) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
48.9% (#78) | 51.1% (#275) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
40.2% (#85) | 59.8% (#269) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
70.2% (#80) | 29.8% (#242) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
68.7% (#81) | 31.3% (#238) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
69.0% (#81) | 31.0% (#249) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend | Prior-only ranking with no forecast | |||
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 4.6 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 150 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Texas State Bobcats | UT Rio Grand... |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| PPG | 101.0 | 74.5 |
| FG% | 56.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 29.7% |
| FT% | 70.1% | 60.7% |
| RPG | 44.0 | 43.0 |
| APG | 18.5 | 15.5 |
| SPG | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| BPG | 3.0 | 5.5 |
| TOPG | 13.0 | 15.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Texas State Bobcats | UT Rio Grand... |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 104.0 | 101.3 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 96.0 | 98.7 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 8.1 | 2.5 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Texas State Bobcats Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Djobet | 14.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 24.5 |
| DJ Hall | 15.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 22.5 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 20.5 |
| Robert Fields | 13.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 20.5 |
| Dimp Pernell | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 20.5 |
UT Rio Grande Val... Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace Posey | 17.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 28.5 |
| B.B. Knight | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 27.5 |
| Devon Pryor | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 26.5 |
| Bobby Crawford Jr. | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 23.5 |
| Chris Uwayo | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 20.5 |