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Saint Francis Red Flash

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Saint Francis Red Wolves
Program History

2016 Team Stats (2 games)

77.0
PPG
84.5
Opp
-7.5
Margin
42.1%
FG%
34.0%
3P%
68.2%
FT%
36.0
RPG
10.0
APG
14.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
69.3
Adj PPG
78.1
Adj Opp PPG
#263
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 879 (#230) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 848 (#265) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +74 elo More → 1002 (#166) HCA +74 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -9.9 (#264) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → -10.6 (#277) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.416 (#200) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -14.9 More → 0.153 (#265) AdjNet -14.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.0 More → 0.149 (#264) AdjNet -15.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 78.1 More → 0.310 (#263) AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 78.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.8 | AdjD 73.1 More → 0.402 (#243) AdjO 68.8 | AdjD 73.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.305 (#252) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.323 (#247) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 138 | GP 30 More → 908 (#235) RD 138 | GP 30

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-14 @ Cincinnati Bearcats L 86 - 93
2015-11-16 vs Pittsburgh Panthers L 59 - 74
2015-11-18 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 106 - 74
2015-11-21 @ Canisius Golden Griffins L 52 - 77
2015-11-23 @ Cornell Big Red L 69 - 75
2015-12-01 @ Columbia Lions L 78 - 82
2015-12-06 @ Ohio Bobcats L 65 - 91
2015-12-12 vs Pittsburgh-Johnstown Mountain Cats W 82 - 78
2015-12-17 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 73 - 81
2015-12-20 @ Florida Gators L 65 - 122
2015-12-21 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels L 82 - 88
2016-01-02 vs Wagner Seahawks W 93 - 78
2016-01-04 vs Sacred Heart Pioneers L 77 - 81
2016-01-09 @ LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds W 84 - 75
2016-01-11 @ St. Francis Brooklyn Terriers W 83 - 76
2016-01-16 vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers W 87 - 57
2016-01-18 vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights W 87 - 67
2016-01-23 @ Central Connecticut Blue Devils L 51 - 66
2016-01-25 @ Bryant Bulldogs L 72 - 84
2016-01-30 vs Robert Morris Colonials W 62 - 54
2016-02-01 @ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 72 - 73
2016-02-06 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils L 59 - 79
2016-02-08 vs Bryant Bulldogs W 85 - 72
2016-02-13 @ Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers W 73 - 64
2016-02-15 @ Wagner Seahawks W 87 - 74
2016-02-20 vs LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds W 72 - 64
2016-02-22 vs St. Francis Brooklyn Terriers W 85 - 68
2016-02-27 @ Sacred Heart Pioneers L 67 - 80
2016-02-29 @ Robert Morris Colonials L 43 - 57
2016-03-06 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils W 83 - 77
2016-03-09 @ Sacred Heart Pioneers L 71 - 92

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Kovatch J. Kovatch G 2 28.5 17.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.5 12.0 6.0 66 23 2.9 4.4 50.0 40.0 85.7 0.92 62.8 58.3
K. Reese K. Reese G 2 28.0 14.5 5.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 13.0 8.5 -23 23 -1.0 -1.8 34.6 25.0 100.0 -3.9 49.1 40.4
A. Brock A. Brock G 2 22.0 12.0 2.5 0.5 2.0 0.0 1.0 13.0 3.0 53 23 2.3 5.2 34.6 25.0 100.0 -0.48 43.9 40.4
M. Wynn M. Wynn G 2 32.5 10.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 7.5 9.0 53 23 2.3 3.7 33.3 41.7 83.3 0.83 56.7 50.0
H. Adams H. Adams G 2 21.0 9.0 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 5.5 8.5 15 23 0.7 1.4 63.6 66.7 100.0 -2.01 75.8 72.7
C. Zezza C. Zezza C 2 15.5 6.5 5.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.5 5.0 9.0 -18 23 -0.8 -3.3 50.0 0.0 33.3 -3.62 46.6 50.0
B. Ward B. Ward F 2 34.0 5.0 10.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.5 10.0 32 23 1.4 2.8 45.5 0 0.0 0.12 40.6 45.5
S. Bethel S. Bethel G 2 10.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.5 14 22 0.6 1.6 100.0 100.0 50.0 -2.42 90.6 150.0
M. Johnson M. Johnson G 1 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -7 17 -0.4 -4.0 0 0 50.0 -3.64 56.8 0
T. Allison T. Allison G 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 22 20 1.1 5.6 0 0 0 0.23 0 0
C. Smith C. Smith F 2 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 27 23 1.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0 -0.49 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG