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Rice

Also known as: Rice Owls, Rice
Program History

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1063 (#140) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1015 (#155) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More โ†’ 998 (#174) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +2.2 (#139) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +1.6 (#151) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.542 (#146) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.5 More โ†’ 0.600 (#139) AdjNet +3.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.6 More โ†’ 0.601 (#140) AdjNet +3.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 66.2 More โ†’ 0.544 (#139) AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 66.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 65.9 More โ†’ 0.514 (#151) AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 65.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.545 (#145) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.539 (#148) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 30 More โ†’ 1032 (#151) RD 102 | GP 30

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-12 vs New Orleans Privateers W 83 - 49
2011-11-17 vs Southern Jaguars W 80 - 65
2011-11-20 vs Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks W 81 - 49
2011-11-22 vs Florida A&M Rattlers W 75 - 59
2011-11-25 vs Northern Iowa Panthers L 60 - 64
2011-11-26 vs Iowa State Cyclones L 63 - 90
2011-11-30 @ Houston Christian Huskies W 78 - 66
2011-12-03 vs St. Thomas (TX) Celts W 81 - 67
2011-12-14 vs Louisiana Christian Wildcats W 109 - 51
2011-12-17 vs Lamar Cardinals L 81 - 87
2011-12-19 vs Temple Owls L 70 - 77
2011-12-22 @ Texas A&M Aggies W 65 - 58
2011-12-28 vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders W 78 - 66
2011-12-31 @ Texas Longhorns L 59 - 73
2012-01-04 @ TCU Horned Frogs L 74 - 78
2012-01-07 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 61 - 63
2012-01-11 @ SMU Mustangs W 68 - 52
2012-01-14 @ Tulane Green Wave W 50 - 49
2012-01-18 vs UAB Blazers L 60 - 61
2012-01-25 @ Memphis Tigers L 51 - 73
2012-01-28 vs Tulane Green Wave W 88 - 74
2012-02-01 vs UTEP Miners W 77 - 75
2012-02-04 @ East Carolina Pirates L 68 - 82
2012-02-08 @ Houston Cougars W 79 - 71
2012-02-18 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane L 50 - 69
2012-02-22 vs UCF Knights W 83 - 74
2012-02-25 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 56 - 58
2012-02-29 @ UTEP Miners W 68 - 61
2012-03-03 vs Houston Cougars L 75 - 76
2012-03-07 vs East Carolina Pirates L 66 - 68
2012-03-14 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 68 - 63
2012-03-17 vs Drake Bulldogs W 74 - 68
2012-03-20 @ Oakland Golden Grizzlies L 70 - 77

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Arsalan Kazemi Arsalan Kazemi F 32 29.4 12.1 10.3 2.2 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.7 24.0 75 29 2.6 3.9 69.8 0 65.9 3.12 267.4 69.8
Tamir Jackson Tamir Jackson G 32 29.9 10.8 2.5 2.9 0.8 0.0 1.9 2.0 13.0 5 30 0.2 0.2 29.2 28.0 42.1 -2.58 234.5 34.6
Connor Frizzelle Connor Frizzelle G 32 27.8 9.8 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.5 2.0 10.6 25 30 0.8 1.3 30.8 27.3 82.6 -0.72 208.3 35.4
Dylan Ennis Dylan Ennis G 33 26.6 8.7 4.4 4.2 1.0 0.6 2.6 1.2 15.1 50 31 1.6 2.7 43.9 33.3 84.2 0.15 289.7 48.8
Lucas Kuipers Lucas Kuipers F 32 19.8 6.5 3.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.6 9.2 19 30 0.6 1.4 46.0 38.5 83.3 -0.77 198.5 56.0
Omar Oraby Omar Oraby C 31 11.8 6.3 3.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 1.2 0.6 10.4 13 28 0.5 1.6 63.2 0 75.0 1.09 350.7 63.2
Ahmad Ibrahim Ahmad Ibrahim - 31 18.6 6.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.3 7.9 - - - - 35.9 25.0 50.0 - 245.7 39.7
Jarelle Reischel Jarelle Reischel G 33 13.6 5.7 2.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.3 0.6 7.8 45 31 1.5 4.2 52.6 33.3 64.3 0.35 371.6 57.9
Julian DeBose Julian DeBose G 32 12.6 3.8 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.5 5.8 75 30 2.5 8.5 26.7 0.0 50.0 2.34 358.0 26.7
Seth Gearhart Seth Gearhart F 24 7.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.7 5 21 0.2 1.4 60.0 50.0 0 -3.04 410.0 80.0
David Chadwick David Chadwick F 29 6.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.4 62 25 2.5 17.1 50.0 50.0 100.0 3.53 312.5 58.3
Emerson Herndon Emerson Herndon F 17 3.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1 -1 16 -0.1 -0.6 100.0 0 0 -1.91 1000.0 100.0
J.R. Reynolds J.R. Reynolds F 7 3.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 -6 7 -0.9 -9.9 0 0 0 -3.11 0 0
Dan Peera Dan Peera G 5 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 1 6 0.2 4.3 0 0 0 -0.93 0 0
Nate Schwarze Nate Schwarze G 18 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -1 17 -0.1 -1.0 0 0 0 -2.4 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG