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Murray State

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Murray State Racers, Murray State
Program History
Coach: Matt McMahon

2017 Team Stats (3 games)

84.3
PPG
73.7
Opp
+10.7
Margin
45.0%
FG%
35.1%
3P%
68.4%
FT%
41.3
RPG
18.3
APG
12.7
TO
-
Est. poss./game
75.0
Adj PPG
76.1
Adj Opp PPG
#189
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 867 (#245) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 941 (#216) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +89 elo More → 985 (#192) HCA +89 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → -1.4 (#189) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -2.5 (#202) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.550 (#141) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.4 More → 0.404 (#199) AdjNet -3.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.4 More → 0.404 (#198) AdjNet -3.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 76.1 More → 0.474 (#189) AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 76.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 75.0 More → 0.486 (#178) AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 75.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.425 (#210) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.428 (#210) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 149 | GP 31 More → 888 (#250) RD 149 | GP 31

2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-11 vs Illinois State Redbirds W 73 - 70
2016-11-15 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 81 - 87
2016-11-19 vs Green Bay Phoenix W 93 - 77
2016-11-20 @ Kansas City Roos L 74 - 85
2016-11-21 @ Bowling Green Falcons L 77 - 78
2016-11-26 vs Alabama A&M Bulldogs W 91 - 54
2016-11-29 @ Southern Illinois Salukis L 85 - 89
2016-12-03 vs Detroit Mercy Titans W 86 - 76
2016-12-10 @ Evansville Purple Aces L 46 - 78
2016-12-12 vs Bethel (TN) Wildcats W 103 - 65
2016-12-15 @ Ole Miss Rebels L 73 - 78
2016-12-17 @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits L 84 - 88
2016-12-22 vs Wright State Raiders L 62 - 77
2016-12-29 vs Brescia Bearcats W 99 - 83
2016-12-31 vs Tennessee State Tigers W 92 - 83
2017-01-05 @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks W 76 - 63
2017-01-07 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles L 67 - 71
2017-01-12 @ Eastern Illinois Panthers W 83 - 72
2017-01-14 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 67 - 59
2017-01-19 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 86 - 79
2017-01-21 @ Austin Peay Governors L 81 - 84
2017-01-26 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks L 74 - 75
2017-01-28 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 94 - 86
2017-02-02 vs Belmont Bruins L 69 - 81
2017-02-08 @ Morehead State Eagles L 100 - 101
2017-02-11 vs Austin Peay Governors W 102 - 58
2017-02-16 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 84 - 73
2017-02-18 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers L 65 - 82
2017-02-23 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks L 69 - 82
2017-02-25 @ UT Martin Skyhawks L 76 - 83
2017-03-01 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 85 - 84
2017-03-02 @ Morehead State Eagles W 75 - 69
2017-03-03 @ UT Martin Skyhawks L 67 - 73

2017 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jonathan Stark Jonathan Stark G 17 36.7 22.5 4.1 5.1 1.4 0.0 2.7 8.5 21.9 -51 16 -3.2 -3.6 42.8 46.2 76.9 -0.34 122.4 53.1
Terrell Miller Terrell Miller F 17 30.2 14.5 7.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 2.1 5.7 16.9 -25 16 -1.6 -2.2 37.1 23.8 77.1 0.52 109.9 42.3
Bryce Jones Bryce Jones G 17 30.4 12.3 3.8 3.7 1.2 0.2 1.5 3.8 15.9 -43 16 -2.7 -3.3 40.6 28.1 88.9 -0.9 130.9 47.7
Damarcus Croaker Damarcus Croaker G 3 28.7 10.0 6.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 1.3 9.3 9.7 -17 11 -1.5 -2.1 42.9 0.0 75.0 0.35 47.6 42.9
Gee McGhee Gee McGhee G 2 23.5 7.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.5 4.5 9.0 -21 13 -1.6 -2.5 22.2 0.0 71.4 -0.31 46.2 22.2
Jachai Taylor Jachai Taylor G 13 9.2 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.6 -34 9 -3.8 -21.5 37.5 25.0 62.5 -4.98 99.9 41.7
Jalen Dupree Jalen Dupree F 17 13.5 4.2 3.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.8 6.0 -15 16 -0.9 -2.4 53.3 0 47.1 -1.84 94.7 53.3
Brion Sanchious Brion Sanchious F 17 23.2 3.5 4.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 7.1 -82 16 -5.1 -10.2 58.8 0 60.0 -4.66 137.9 58.8
Jerami Grace Jerami Grace G 15 10.1 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.1 4.1 -1 13 -0.1 -0.4 11.8 18.2 0.0 -0.19 134.2 17.6
Gilbert Thomas Gilbert Thomas F 12 10.3 2.9 2.7 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 4.7 -7 11 -0.6 -2.5 45.5 0.0 57.1 -1.75 124.3 45.5
Dondre Griffin Dondre Griffin G 8 4.4 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.0 21 6 3.5 35.2 54.5 50.0 0 3.05 86.4 63.6

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG