Mississippi State
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
87.8
PPG
52.2
Opp
+35.5
Margin
47.5%
FG%
27.0%
3P%
61.0%
FT%
49.8
RPG
17.8
APG
17.5
TO
81.5
Est. poss./game
72.6
Adj PPG
51.0
Adj Opp PPG
#22
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1360 (#32) | Preseason prior 1350 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1100, returning +73, transfers +176, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1252 (#27) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1248 (#27) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +28.3 (#21) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +28.1 (#22) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.983 (#26) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.917 (#30) | AdjNet +26.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.932 (#25) | AdjNet +27.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.874 (#22) | AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 51.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.872 (#22) | AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 51.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.898 (#27) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.897 (#27) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1282 (#26) | RD 179 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.909 (#29) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | vs | North Alabama Lions | W | 68 - 27 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ | UT Martin Skyhawks | W | 114 - 68 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Troy Trojans | W | 79 - 57 |
| 2026-11-14 | @ | Buffalo Bulls | W | 90 - 57 |
| 2026-11-17 | vs | Alabama State Lady Hornets | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Favour Nwaedozi
|
F | 4 | 22.5 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 17.8 | 70 | 3 | 23.3 | 42.6 | 65.0 | 0 | 62.5 | 5.5 | 65.9 | 65.0 |
Madison Francis
|
F | 4 | 24.2 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 60 | 3 | 20.0 | 39.5 | 44.4 | 18.2 | 75.0 | 3.88 | 48.7 | 46.3 |
Reese Beaty
|
G | 4 | 27.5 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.5 | 12.2 | 70 | 3 | 23.3 | 34.8 | 57.7 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 3.53 | 66.1 | 59.6 |
Tootie Lockett
|
G | 4 | 21.8 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 38 | 3 | 12.7 | 24.5 | 41.2 | 15.4 | 50.0 | 1.61 | 45.6 | 44.1 |
Aryss Macktoon
|
G | 4 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 32 | 3 | 10.7 | 30.1 | 53.8 | 25.0 | 8.3 | 2.75 | 48.0 | 55.8 |
Melissa Guillet
|
G | 4 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 57 | 3 | 19.0 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 18.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 52.0 | 52.0 |
Macie Phifer
|
G | 4 | 19.5 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 34 | 3 | 11.3 | 24.4 | 45.0 | 50.0 | 80.0 | 0.84 | 56.3 | 52.5 |
Cali Smallwood
|
G | 4 | 18.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 50 | 3 | 16.7 | 36.1 | 26.9 | 22.7 | 100.0 | -0.06 | 40.3 | 36.5 |
Lani Smallwood
|
G | 4 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 24 | 3 | 8.0 | 33.6 | 47.1 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.41 | 60.2 | 58.8 |
Grace Ndubueze
|
F | 4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 30 | 3 | 10.0 | 37.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 62.5 | 1.66 | 54.8 | 50.0 |
Ludovica Sammartino
|
F | 4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 14 | 3 | 4.7 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 0.18 | 70.9 | 66.7 |
Arianny Francisco de Oliveira
|
F | 3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | -0.7 | -5 | 2 | -2.5 | -32.6 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -1.67 | 22.5 | 18.8 |
Andrea Flores
|
G | 3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -1.12 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
Alumni in the Pros
Former Mississippi State players in WNBA 2026, matched by provider player ids (ESPN athlete ids, ESPN bios, linked StatsNBA/EuroLeague ids). Only games after their last Mississippi State game count. These are observed results, not certified complete seasons. League and team are where each player last played a regular-season or playoff game (NBA ahead of G League when he played in both); recent games include the preseason.
Active alumni
| Player | At School | League | Team | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | Last game | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickea Jackson | 2019-22 | WNBA | Chicago Sky | 4 | 29.5 | 18.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 05-17 6 pts, 1 reb, 0 ast | no games |
| Madina Okot | 2024-25 | WNBA | Atlanta Dream | 42 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 10-26 0 pts, 0 reb, 0 ast Playoffs | 4 GP, 0.8 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 0.2 APG |
| Chloe Bibby | 2017-20 | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx (2 teams) | 9 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 09-27 5 pts, 0 reb, 0 ast Playoffs | no games |
| Teaira McCowan | 2015-19 | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | 10 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 06-24 0 pts, 1 reb, 0 ast | no games |
Alumni around the leagues: recent games
| Date | Player | League | Team | Opponent | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Madina Okot | WNBA Playoffs | Atlanta Dream | @ Golden State Valkyries | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-10-24 | Madina Okot | WNBA Playoffs | Atlanta Dream | vs Golden State Valkyries | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-10-21 | Madina Okot | WNBA Playoffs | Atlanta Dream | vs Golden State Valkyries | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-09-27 | Chloe Bibby | WNBA Playoffs | Minnesota Lynx | vs New York Liberty | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-09-24 | Chloe Bibby | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | vs Indiana Fever | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-09-22 | Chloe Bibby | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | @ Indiana Fever | 26 | 15 | 2 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-06-24 | Teaira McCowan | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | @ Washington Mystics | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-06-21 | Teaira McCowan | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | vs Washington Mystics | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-06-17 | Teaira McCowan | WNBA | Minnesota Lynx | @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-05-17 | Rickea Jackson | WNBA | Chicago Sky | @ Minnesota Lynx | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-05-15 | Rickea Jackson | WNBA | Chicago Sky | @ Phoenix Mercury | 32 | 29 | 6 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-05-13 | Rickea Jackson | WNBA | Chicago Sky | @ Golden State Valkyries | 39 | 18 | 5 | 5 | Box |
| 2026-05-03 | Madison Hayes | WNBA Preseason | Connecticut Sun | vs New York Liberty | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-04-29 | Madison Hayes | WNBA Preseason | Connecticut Sun | @ Toronto Tempo | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-04-25 | Sidney Cooks | WNBA Preseason | Chicago Sky | @ Phoenix Mercury | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Box |
2026-2027 Shot Zones
295 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Favour NwaedoziMadison FrancisReese BeatyTootie LockettAryss MacktoonMelissa GuilletCali SmallwoodAndrea Flores
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 60-80 | 75.0 | 120 | Favour Nwaedozi 27% (32 pts) | Madison Francis 20% (24 pts) | Favour Nwaedozi 30% (6 misses) | Madison Francis 25% (5 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 39-88 | 44.3 | 78 | Favour Nwaedozi 23% (18 pts) | Reese Beaty 15% (12 pts) | Madison Francis 22% (11 misses) | Macie Phifer 12% (6 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 5-12 | 41.7 | 10 | Cali Smallwood 40% (4 pts) | Madison Francis 40% (4 pts) | Aryss Macktoon 43% (3 misses) | Cali Smallwood 14% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Madison Francis 50% (2 pts) | Tootie Lockett 50% (2 pts) | Madison Francis 50% (1 misses) | Reese Beaty 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 10-22 | 45.5 | 20 | Reese Beaty 50% (10 pts) | Madison Francis 20% (4 pts) | Favour Nwaedozi 25% (3 misses) | Madison Francis 25% (3 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 3-8 | 37.5 | 9 | Andrea Flores 33% (3 pts) | Lani Smallwood 33% (3 pts) | Cali Smallwood 20% (1 misses) | Ludovica Sammartino 20% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-10 | 20.0 | 6 | Melissa Guillet 50% (3 pts) | Tootie Lockett 50% (3 pts) | Melissa Guillet 38% (3 misses) | Lani Smallwood 25% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 6-24 | 25.0 | 18 | Cali Smallwood 33% (6 pts) | Ludovica Sammartino 17% (3 pts) | Cali Smallwood 56% (10 misses) | Madison Francis 11% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 5-18 | 27.8 | 15 | Cali Smallwood 20% (3 pts) | Lani Smallwood 20% (3 pts) | Madison Francis 38% (5 misses) | Cali Smallwood 23% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 8-29 | 27.6 | 24 | Cali Smallwood 25% (6 pts) | Lani Smallwood 25% (6 pts) | Tootie Lockett 38% (8 misses) | Melissa Guillet 24% (5 misses) |