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Minnesota Lynx

Also known as: Minnesota Lynx
Program History

2012 Team Stats (34 games)

86.0
PPG
76.2
Opp
+9.8
Margin
47.3%
FG%
40.0%
3P%
75.5%
FT%
37.8
RPG
20.8
APG
14.5
TO
80.3
Est. poss./game
82.6
Adj PPG
75.1
Adj Opp PPG
#1
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1165 (#2) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1189 (#1) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +80 elo More โ†’ 1109 (#2) HCA +80 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +7.7 (#1) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.5 More โ†’ +6.0 (#2) HCA +3.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.752 (#1) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.6 More โ†’ 0.750 (#1) AdjNet +9.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.6 More โ†’ 0.751 (#1) AdjNet +9.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 75.1 More โ†’ 0.665 (#1) AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 75.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 75.2 More โ†’ 0.618 (#2) AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 75.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.700 (#2) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.692 (#2) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 86 | GP 43 More โ†’ 1178 (#2) RD 86 | GP 43

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-05-20 vs Phoenix Mercury W 105 - 83
2012-05-22 @ New York Liberty W 80 - 62
2012-05-24 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 92 - 84
2012-05-27 vs Seattle Storm W 84 - 71
2012-05-30 @ Washington Mystics W 79 - 77
2012-06-01 @ Connecticut Sun W 85 - 72
2012-06-03 vs Las Vegas Aces W 83 - 79
2012-06-06 vs Seattle Storm W 79 - 55
2012-06-09 @ Dallas Wings W 93 - 73
2012-06-15 @ Phoenix Mercury W 78 - 60
2012-06-17 @ Seattle Storm L 62 - 65
2012-06-21 vs New York Liberty W 102 - 70
2012-06-23 vs Chicago Sky W 79 - 67
2012-06-27 vs Phoenix Mercury W 96 - 80
2012-07-01 @ Las Vegas Aces L 84 - 93
2012-07-05 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 90 - 96
2012-07-07 vs Connecticut Sun L 80 - 86
2012-07-10 @ Dallas Wings W 107 - 86
2012-07-12 vs Dallas Wings W 89 - 74
2012-08-17 vs Washington Mystics W 98 - 69
2012-08-19 vs Dallas Wings W 83 - 59
2012-08-21 @ Seattle Storm W 86 - 73
2012-08-25 @ Atlanta Dream W 84 - 74
2012-08-28 vs Las Vegas Aces W 96 - 84
2012-08-31 vs Dallas Wings W 92 - 83
2012-09-04 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 88 - 77
2012-09-07 vs Atlanta Dream W 97 - 93
2012-09-09 @ Las Vegas Aces W 81 - 62
2012-09-11 @ Chicago Sky L 70 - 83
2012-09-14 @ Indiana Fever W 66 - 64
2012-09-17 vs Indiana Fever W 86 - 79
2012-09-20 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 76 - 92
2012-09-21 @ Phoenix Mercury W 89 - 66
2012-09-23 @ Las Vegas Aces L 84 - 99
2012-09-28 vs Seattle Storm W 78 - 70
2012-09-30 @ Seattle Storm L 79 - 86
2012-10-02 vs Seattle Storm W 73 - 72
2012-10-04 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 94 - 77
2012-10-07 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 80 - 79
2012-10-14 vs Indiana Fever L 70 - 76
2012-10-17 vs Indiana Fever W 83 - 71
2012-10-19 @ Indiana Fever L 59 - 76
2012-10-21 @ Indiana Fever L 78 - 87

2012 Roster

Counting stats use played regular-season games. PM and RAPM use their separate model samples; PM GP shows that sample's game count.

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Seimone Augustus G 29 28.5 16.6 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 1.7 13.5 8.6 -198 38 -5.2 -5.4 49.1 43.7 85.2 -0.54 57.6 54.9
Maya Moore F 34 29.7 16.4 6.0 3.6 1.5 0.6 1.8 12.6 13.8 -293 43 -6.8 -6.9 46.5 38.8 87.9 -2.21 59.2 55.0
Lindsay Whalen G 33 27.0 11.5 4.2 5.4 0.7 0.2 2.1 8.9 11.0 -187 42 -4.5 -5.0 50.5 50.0 72.7 -0.02 56.6 52.7
Rebekkah Brunson F 31 27.0 11.4 8.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 8.8 13.5 -144 40 -3.6 -4.0 50.5 0 67.9 0.27 54.6 50.5
Monica Wright G 34 19.4 8.6 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 1.9 6.6 5.6 -164 43 -3.8 -4.7 45.8 36.4 74.0 0.16 54.8 49.3
Taj McWilliams-Franklin C 33 26.6 8.4 5.4 2.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 7.1 9.6 -229 42 -5.5 -6.4 51.9 40.0 75.0 -1.1 54.6 52.3
Candice Wiggins G 34 21.8 6.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 1.8 5.8 4.2 -190 43 -4.4 -5.0 36.0 39.7 86.5 -0.76 54.4 50.8
Devereaux Peters F 30 14.1 5.3 3.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 3.6 6.4 -90 39 -2.3 -4.0 56.0 0 70.6 -0.18 60.1 56.0
Amber Harris - 27 8.9 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 3.3 2.9 -99 33 -3.0 -6.3 40.4 38.9 68.2 -0.53 47.6 44.4
Jessica Adair - 19 8.8 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 7 23 0.3 0.8 35.1 0 57.1 0.78 43.9 35.1
Erin Thorn - 26 7.5 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 -43 32 -1.3 -3.9 36.2 35.3 100.0 0.12 52.4 48.9
Julie Wojta - 1 4.2 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -1.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2012 Shot Zones

3063 located field-goal attempts in 45 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Whalen20% Augustus24% Augustus30% Augustus29% Augustus22% Wiggins41% Wiggins50% Moore41% Moore39% Moore28%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Whalen19% Augustus21% Augustus28% Brunson18% Augustus21% Wiggins27% Moore53% Moore36% Moore34% Moore34%
Misses: who misses most here

Maya MooreSeimone AugustusLindsay WhalenRebekkah BrunsonCandice Wiggins

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 600-970 61.9 1200 Lindsay Whalen 20% (244 pts) Rebekkah Brunson 16% (198 pts) Lindsay Whalen 19% (69 misses) Rebekkah Brunson 17% (64 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 188-502 37.5 376 Seimone Augustus 24% (90 pts) Rebekkah Brunson 19% (70 pts) Seimone Augustus 21% (65 misses) Lindsay Whalen 16% (51 misses)
Mid-range left 182-424 42.9 364 Seimone Augustus 30% (108 pts) Maya Moore 20% (72 pts) Seimone Augustus 28% (68 misses) Lindsay Whalen 15% (36 misses)
Mid-range center 75-174 43.1 150 Seimone Augustus 29% (44 pts) Taj McWilliams-Franklin 17% (26 pts) Rebekkah Brunson 18% (18 misses) Maya Moore 17% (17 misses)
Mid-range right 134-312 42.9 268 Seimone Augustus 22% (58 pts) Maya Moore 19% (52 pts) Seimone Augustus 21% (37 misses) Maya Moore 18% (32 misses)
Left corner 3 29-62 46.8 87 Candice Wiggins 41% (36 pts) Seimone Augustus 21% (18 pts) Candice Wiggins 27% (9 misses) Maya Moore 24% (8 misses)
Right corner 3 12-29 41.4 36 Candice Wiggins 50% (18 pts) Maya Moore 33% (12 pts) Maya Moore 53% (9 misses) Erin Thorn 18% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 left 90-267 33.7 270 Maya Moore 41% (111 pts) Candice Wiggins 20% (54 pts) Maya Moore 36% (63 misses) Candice Wiggins 26% (46 misses)
Above-break 3 center 31-101 30.7 93 Maya Moore 39% (36 pts) Candice Wiggins 19% (18 pts) Maya Moore 34% (24 misses) Candice Wiggins 20% (14 misses)
Above-break 3 right 86-222 38.7 258 Maya Moore 28% (72 pts) Seimone Augustus 28% (72 pts) Maya Moore 34% (46 misses) Candice Wiggins 24% (32 misses)