Chestnut Hill
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 818 (#256) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 834 (#264) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 901 (#528) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.4 (#258) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.8 (#425) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.298 (#251) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.954 (#155) | NetEff +26.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.276 (#272) | AdjNet -8.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.274 (#274) | AdjNet -8.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.360 (#273) | AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 74.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.368 (#483) | AdjO 69.6 | AdjD 75.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.352 (#429) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.347 (#432) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 876 (#394) | RD 102 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Assumption | L | 64 - 87 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Staten Island | L | 81 - 92 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ | East Stroudsburg | L | 75 - 96 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Shippensburg | L | 65 - 67 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Mercy | W | 80 - 66 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Post | W | 70 - 66 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Adelphi | L | 63 - 84 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Goldey-Beacom | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Holy Family | W | 68 - 52 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Dominican (NY) | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2025-12-18 | vs | Dist. Columbia | W | 80 - 67 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Felician | L | 63 - 83 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | L | 64 - 79 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Bridgeport | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 75 - 72 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Caldwell | L | 68 - 80 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Jefferson | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Post | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Goldey-Beacom | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Holy Family | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Dominican (NY) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-11 | vs | Wilmington (DE) | W | 80 - 70 |
| 2026-02-14 | vs | Caldwell | L | 78 - 89 |
| 2026-02-17 | @ | Georgian Court | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ | Bridgeport | L | 64 - 73 |
| 2026-02-25 | @ | Jefferson | L | 72 - 82 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | Felician | L | 72 - 90 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IV Pettit | - | 1 | 23.6 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | - | 54.5 | 40.0 | 100.0 | - | 72.0 | 63.6 |
| Alejandro Cybak | - | 23 | 34.3 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | - | - | - | - | 46.4 | 32.9 | 75.8 | - | 56.2 | 51.2 |
| Amari Dow | - | 23 | 33.4 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 11.5 | 8.5 | - | - | - | - | 42.6 | 30.2 | 71.1 | - | 50.2 | 45.7 |
| Jeremiah Gorham | - | 12 | 31.6 | 11.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | - | - | - | - | 42.0 | 27.3 | 80.6 | - | 52.8 | 47.3 |
| Kamal Lee | - | 12 | 28.1 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | - | - | - | - | 36.3 | 31.6 | 75.0 | - | 49.0 | 46.2 |
| Landon Shivers | - | 23 | 18.1 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 6.9 | - | - | - | - | 44.0 | 33.3 | 79.6 | - | 54.6 | 48.4 |
| Tyler Spencer | - | 23 | 17.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | - | - | - | - | 40.7 | 17.6 | 84.0 | - | 48.3 | 43.5 |
| Travis Reed | - | 3 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | - | - | - | - | 40.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 59.3 | 45.0 |
| Malcolm Day | - | 21 | 16.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | - | - | - | - | 33.3 | 31.8 | 50.0 | - | 40.1 | 39.2 |
| Cam Burns | - | 13 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 40.6 | 27.3 | 0 | - | 45.3 | 45.3 |
| Marshall Baker | - | 11 | 12.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -0.1 | - | - | - | - | 25.0 | 7.7 | 37.5 | - | 29.1 | 27.1 |
| Keith Brown | - | 4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG