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UCF Knights 18-12
@
2021-12-18
Florida State Seminoles 17-14

Model Predictions

Model UCF Knights Florida Stat... Spread Projected
Elo
2021-22 season-end ratings
 56.8% (#106) 43.2% (#199) UCF Knights -4.7 73-69
Bradley-Terry
2021-22 season-end ratings
 42.0% (#105) 58.0% (#101) - -
Margin
2021-22 season-end ratings
 39.4% (#102) 60.6% (#100) Florida... -2.4 -
Pythagorean
2021-22 season-end ratings
 52.0% (#149) 48.0% (#197) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2021-22 season-end ratings
 48.2% (#100) 51.8% (#102) - -
Log Adjusted
2021-22 season-end ratings
 48.3% (#99) 51.7% (#101) - -
Points Off/Def
2021-22 season-end ratings
 43.2% (#103) 56.8% (#104) - -

2021-22 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.5 points per 100 Elo plus a 1.9-point home edge (2020-21 margin fit); projected score: 2020-21's average total of 142 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat UCF Knights Florida Stat...
Games 24 26
PPG 70.6 72.0
FG% 42.8% 44.2%
3PT% 35.0% 33.0%
FT% 68.5% 69.9%
RPG 34.8 35.1
APG 14.9 14.5
SPG 7.5 8.8
BPG 3.5 4.7
TOPG 12.8 12.7

Efficiency Ratings

Metric UCF Knights Florida Stat...
Adj. Off Eff 104.5 104.3
Adj. Def Eff 95.5 95.7
Adj. Net Eff 8.9 8.6

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

UCF Knights Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Darin Green Jr. 13.0 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 30.7
Darius Perry 12.3 3.9 4.5 1.6 0.2 30.4
Brandon Mahan 9.8 4.1 1.6 1.7 0.2 26.5
C.J. Walker 8.2 5.4 1.0 0.3 0.9 25.0
C. Diong 6.8 6.0 0.6 0.7 1.4 24.7

Florida State Seminoles Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Anthony Polite 9.9 5.6 2.5 1.5 0.5 27.9
Malik Osborne 10.0 6.9 0.9 1.0 0.2 27.6
Caleb Mills 12.7 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.5 26.3
Matthew Cleveland 11.5 4.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 25.9
RayQuan Evans 8.1 2.5 3.1 1.6 0.4 24.8