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Incarnate Word Cardinals 8-14
@
2021-02-20
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 16-5

Model Predictions

Model Incarnate Wo... Stephen F. A... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 2.6% (#333) 97.4% (#94) Stephen... -24.2 58-83
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 9.6% (#331) 90.4% (#104) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 4.8% (#326) 95.2% (#157) Stephen... -16.4 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 19.9% (#303) 80.1% (#49) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 3.5% (#325) 96.5% (#170) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 3.5% (#325) 96.5% (#171) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 17.6% (#327) 82.4% (#145) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Incarnate Wo... Stephen F. A...
Games 9 20
PPG 68.9 81.6
FG% 44.1% 52.5%
3PT% 35.3% 33.6%
FT% 66.7% 68.5%
RPG 31.6 36.3
APG 13.4 16.0
SPG 5.6 9.5
BPG 1.7 3.7
TOPG 13.2 16.7

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Incarnate Wo... Stephen F. A...
Adj. Off Eff 90.7 99.6
Adj. Def Eff 109.3 100.4
Adj. Net Eff -18.7 -0.9

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Incarnate Word Cardinals Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Keaston Willis 17.6 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.0 31.7
Des Balentine 7.3 3.7 3.8 0.9 0.3 31.4
Brandon Swaby 7.9 3.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 29.3
Drew Lutz 7.5 1.9 3.3 0.9 0.0 25.5
Player #4593760 9.5 7.9 1.1 0.6 1.0 25.1

Stephen F. Austin... Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Roti Ware 13.0 3.1 2.8 1.9 0.2 33.3
Cameron Johnson 15.6 4.6 1.8 1.2 0.2 30.6
Gavin Kensmil 16.6 7.3 1.2 1.4 0.3 28.6
David Kachelries 11.3 2.6 4.6 1.3 0.2 26.4
Calvin Solomon 7.7 4.9 1.3 1.4 1.0 22.3