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Fresno State Bulldogs 12-12
@
2020-11-27
Pacific Tigers 9-9

Model Predictions

Model Fresno State... Pacific Tigers Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 32.4% (#175) 67.6% (#159) Pacific Tigers -4.1 69-73
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 34.2% (#179) 65.8% (#137) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 20.1% (#193) 79.9% (#128) Pacific Tigers -7.6 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 43.8% (#240) 56.2% (#223) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 19.2% (#207) 80.8% (#128) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 19.3% (#207) 80.7% (#128) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 32.6% (#208) 67.4% (#135) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Fresno State... Pacific Tigers
Games 4 4
PPG 64.3 60.3
FG% 43.8% 37.3%
3PT% 35.0% 22.5%
FT% 62.7% 50.9%
RPG 33.3 34.5
APG 10.8 10.3
SPG 6.0 7.0
BPG 2.3 2.8
TOPG 17.0 11.5

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Fresno State... Pacific Tigers
Adj. Off Eff 97.6 101.7
Adj. Def Eff 102.4 98.3
Adj. Net Eff -4.9 3.5

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Fresno State Bulldogs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Orlando Robinson 14.3 9.1 2.1 0.7 0.5 31.1
A. Holland 6.4 4.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 30.3
I. Hill 10.2 3.1 3.3 1.3 0.2 30.2
J. Ballard 6.3 2.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 27.6
D. Stroud 11.6 3.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 23.9

Pacific Tigers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Daniss Jenkins 12.2 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 31.2
J. Bailey 11.4 6.2 1.1 1.7 0.3 30.9
B. Finstuen 11.2 5.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 28.4
P. Crockrell II 10.1 2.5 4.1 0.8 0.1 26.4
Jordan Bell 8.9 6.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 25.6